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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah entered its first bye week of the 2024 season with a 4-1 record after sweeping their nonconference slate and splitting their first two Big 12 matchups.
A 35-0 first half in the opener against Southern Utah saw the return of both seventh-year stars Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe, the defense shined against Baylor, and they avoided a rivalry upset bid at Utah State.
Then, in the program's Big 12 debut win, the defense smothered then-No. 14 Oklahoma State and held them under 150 total yards until the final minutes. Another lingering injury at quarterback has held back the offense and ended up costing Utah in their second Big 12 game, a sluggish loss to Arizona.
Here after the bye week, it's a chance to take inventory of how Utah is stacking up in my opponent-adjusted metrics through five games compared to last season and our preseason expectations.
Game Grader
2023: 35th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 25th of 70 Power Four (4th in Big 12)
Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. The Baylor and Oklahoma State victories were strong, but Utah's score is weighed down by the 13-point loss to Arizona.
Utah is up 10 spots from the 2023 team, but are underperforming here compared to my preseason expectation: No. 8 nationally and the Big 12 favorite.
In an extremely wide-open Big 12, I still forecast Utah to win the conference, but they need serious improvement in some spots to get there.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play offense
2023: 65th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 60th of 70 Power Four (16th in Big 12)
When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story: 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Akron. Additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.
Instead, my metrics evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. Utah checks in among the worst in Power Four — dead last in the Big 12. This is mostly due to Rising's injury.
With him under center, the offense jumped out to a 35-0 first half against Southern Utah, and then again a 23-0 start against Baylor; but without him, the offense appears handcuffed and limited.
Opponent-adjusted pass offense
2023: 63rd of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 61st of 70 Power Four (15th in Big 12)
The passing offense stat compares Utah's QB rating against what their opposing defenses average giving up. There has been no progress here from last season as Utah remains in the bottom 10.
With Rising barely playing a total of four quarters this season, the keys to the offense were passed to true freshman Isaac Wilson. After a slow start in the Utah State game, Wilson has shown flashes of brilliance, but it is still a tough assignment for a young new guy to lead the offense. Wilson checks in at No. 14 on the Big 12 leaderboard for QB rating.
Opponent-adjusted rush offense
2023: 46th of 70 Power Four team
2024: 59th of 70 Power Four (14th in Big 12)
The rushing stat compares Utah's yards per carry against what their opposing defenses allow. With Rising's injury, the passing struggles could be understandable. But Utah's rushing problems are a shock.
Micah Bernard has taken on a workhorse role, where he shined in the Oklahoma State win with 186 yards; but from a team view, they are grading out poorly. Look for the offensive line to get a boost over the bye week and start to establish a more consistent run push.
Of course, the return of Rising and his vertical pass game would pay dividends to the run game, too.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play defense
2023: 19th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 20th of 70 Power Four (3rd in Big 12)
Morgan Scalley's defense is off to another solid start, where they check in at No. 20 through five games. They are one of the few defenses to hold every opponent below their offensive averages, and are second in the Big 12 in scoring defense allowing just 15 points per game.
Opponent-adjusted pass defense
2023: 8th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 18th of 70 Power Four (4th in Big 12)
Utah's pass defense also holds a top-20 mark, which is ahead of the preseason expectation as they had to replace four starters in the secondary. The newcomers have impressed, like former Top 200 signee Smith Snowden's end zone interception against Utah State and Elijah Davis, who already has a pair of picks.
The defense held seventh-year QB Alan Bowman to such a poor start that Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy had to bench the veteran.
As Big 12 play heats up they need to continue this dominance in the pass game. Utah currently holds the nation's longest active streak of seasons with a pick six — 20 years — but they have not scored one this season yet.
Opponent-adjusted rush defense
2023: 14th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 40th of 70 Power Four (8th in Big 12)
This statistical drop-off is a shocker so far. Utah was No. 14 here last year and actually held the No. 1 ranking for several weeks in 2023, but has fallen to below average in 2024.
The front seven features several All-Big 12 candidates, but they are outside the top 25 in sacks, tackles for loss, and yards per carry. I do think with more data points Utah will rise up the charts in this category.
