Canzano: Pac-12 on the clock — critical 48 hours ahead

The Pac-12 Conference's ongoing, dragged out, over-cooked existential crisis has raised a question I'm sure a bunch of you have already considered.

Are you on the bus?

Meaning, do you believe the Pac-12 can hold its nine remaining schools together, land a satisfactory media-rights deal, and add a school or two via expansion?

All in the next 48 hours or so?

That's the task.

I don't blame anyone who jumped off the bus after seeing USC, UCLA and Colorado exit. Being a Pac-12 fan in the last 14 months must have been a drag. The conference is negotiating from a weakened position at a terrible time. The Pac-12 hasn't been tactically sound, maneuvered too slow, asked too much of its members, and is in an uncomfortable position because of it.

A few things:

• The Pac-12 is expected to present its media-rights deal to the remaining nine schools in the next couple of days. The timelines I've heard range from 24 hours to 72 hours. I'm setting the over/under at 48 hours — noon on Wednesday.

• I expect the uncertainty will create a swirl of rumors and fear mongering in the next couple of days. Be careful out there.

• The Big 12 would love to capture the University of Arizona. It already snatched Colorado.

• President Robert Robbins has assured fellow members of the Pac-12 CEO Group that Arizona will wait to see the conference's media-rights numbers before making any decisions. (I rolled my eyes, but several of his Pac-12 peers in the room tell me they trust and believe him.) That also matches the recent public-facing comments from Robbins.

• Would Arizona leave ASU behind and bolt to the Big 12? Or would Arizona insist on bringing the rival Sun Devils along? If so, does that work? Discuss.

• While we're on the topic, lawmakers in the Pacific Northwest recently tried to pass legislation that would have legally joined a couple of Pac-12 schools at the hip.

SB 5206 aimed to give lawmakers approval authority over conference realignment decisions involving Washington and Washington State. It was sponsored by three state senators who didn't want WSU to get left behind should Washington decide to leave for the Big Ten Conference or someplace else.

The bill would have pitted the presidents at those schools against each other. That apparently felt unnecessary in the end. Lawmakers did not advance the bill.

• Will the Pac-12 get a reasonable media-rights number after the loss of Colorado and the Denver television market?

I called around over the weekend and sensed both angst and optimism from different corners of the conference. Not sure I'd trust anything these days until I see numbers on paper. Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff is facing a "Show me the money!" moment.

• I'm told by a Pac-12 CEO Group member: "Expansion will come into play immediately after the media-rights deal."

Immediately? That timeline suggests the conference is including media companies in the expansion equation. That makes far more sense than getting a media deal as a group of nine schools, then holding some long-winded meetings … waiting around … pausing … and waiting … and meeting … and pausing … and waiting.

• Retired Fox Sports Networks president Bob Thompson knows what he'd want to see if he were negotiating with the Pac-12 on behalf of a media company. Namely — who was in the conference, who was coming via expansion, and when.

In fact, Thompson tweeted it:

• I do think the Pac-12 has media-rights buyers at the table. At what level after the departure of Colorado? We'll soon find out.

• On the expansion front, I am told by multiple sources that San Diego State is still in play for the 2024 Pac-12 football season. I find that very interesting. I'd pivoted to believing SMU was at the front of the line.

The Aztecs would face a painful $34 million exit fee from the Mountain West Conference to make that happen. But I am told the Pac-12 may be willing to give an assist or provide some financial flexibility to SDSU on that front.

• Would Pac-12 fans have traded Colorado for San Diego State if that deal was proposed? I'll bet a lot would. I still think having them both was better, though.

• The current appetite for expansion still appears to be only one to two schools for the Pac-12 … that is, unless the conference loses Arizona to the Big 12. Under the worst-case scenario, the Pac-12 would have to backfill with additional members.

• Oregon and Washington getting antsy? I'm not ready to go there. Both still value access to the College Football Playoff, above all. They have plenty of that in the new-world Pac-12. Also, they're married to in-state rival schools and appear to enjoy being in the same conference as Stanford. I still think those things matter.

• SMU remains highly motivated to join the Pac-12 as an expansion candidate. I inquired with a well-placed source in Dallas as to whether boosters there might subsidize San Diego State's move and pick up some of the $34 million bill. Was told that isn't being discussed. SMU's willingness to take a very small or no distribution in early years of a media-rights deal would help with cash flow, though.

• SMU is waiting for an official invitation and some clarity. Said one campus source there: "Hoping to learn more over the next 48 hours."

Ain't it the truth?

• After Colorado left for the Big 12 I wondered if Phil Knight might swoop in and help save the Pac-12. He's a legacy guy. Stanford and Oregon are two of his big loves. Does giving an assist to the conference they belong to matter enough to get involved? I reached out to Knight for a comment. Nothing yet, but I'm told the Nike founder isn't currently involved.

• I'll update as more information becomes available. Glad you're here but I'll leave you with a thought. I was communicating with retired sportswriter and friend Ken Goe about the current landscape of college athletics. Goe made a great point.

"Two things I loved about college football — traditional rivalry games and Saturday afternoon games in the fall," Goe said. "Neither matters much in the current climate."

Pass the beer nuts.

Read more of columnist John Canzano exclusively at JohnCanzano.com.

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