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On Thursday evening San Diego State athletic director J.D. Wicker spoke at a function for Aztecs football premium season-ticket holders held inside Snapdragon Stadium.
Wicker predicted at the same event a year ago that construction of the $310 million stadium would spark the most consequential year in SDSU athletics history.
"We're almost there," he half-joked on Thursday night, checking his wristwatch. "We have approximately 15 days left in this year so I'm hopeful we'll finish checking those boxes."
Several months ago I reported that the Pac-12 Conference CEO Group voted to approve "further exploration" of four universities for possible expansion. San Diego State and SMU were at the front of the line in that approved quartet, sources told me.
Where do things stand for San Diego State? Is June 30 really a deadline? What of the silence at SMU? And what do I make of the other universities that were explored by the Pac-12 for expansion?
Here's what I know:
• San Diego State has until June 30 to officially inform the Mountain West Conference that it is leaving should the Aztecs wish to participate in the 2024 Pac-12 football season. The exit fee: $16.5 million. If SDSU blows through that deadline the fee doubles to $33 million.
ESPN's Pete Thamel reported on Friday that San Diego State wrote a letter informing the MWC that it intends to resign from the conference. This wasn't THE official notice. The school simply asked for a one-month extension of the deadline and expressed its intent to notify. The Aztecs do not yet have a formal invitation from the Pac-12, per sources.
• Aside from Washington State's president Kirk Schulz recently pointing to the end of the June as a target for media-rights resolution, I have had a couple of other Pac-12 CEO Group members tell me the timeline pressure is a non-factor.
Literally, one said on Friday morning: "Feeling no time pressure."
I found that interesting. Schulz was getting his budget approved when he told his regents that. It's possible San Diego State could officially inform the MWC that it is leaving on June 30 without having a formal written offer from the Pac-12.
San Diego State did this once before. Remember, in 2012, the Aztecs "left" the conference for the Big East. Then, SDSU reversed course and had to apply to rejoin. The Mountain West members wouldn't balk at that scenario anymore than the Pac-12 would have balked at taking UCLA back.
• I am told by sources that the Pac-12 had the potential media-rights partners model deals that included both San Diego State and SMU. No surprise there. I am told the conference "looked at every scenario" by a source. The Pac-12 even asked potential partners for media models that involved UCLA.
• The Big 12 Conference members will each receive an average distribution of $31.6 million as part of its media-rights deal. I've been repeatedly told by those in the room that the Pac-12 expects to beat that number. One member of the conference's CEO Group called being in range of the Big 12's figure "a lay-up."
Two others in the room have since told me they remain confident the Pac-12 will beat it. Nothing is done until the Pac-12 produces a signed contract, but one trusted source said: "We are in the position of believing we will beat the Big 12 number."
• How does the Pac-12 get north of the Big 12's figure without USC and UCLA as part of the media package? I did some poking around with sources at media companies. Nobody I spoke with believes the Pac-12 can eclipse a $32 million-per-school average distribution without including both San Diego State and SMU.
• The networks and streaming services are looking for not only quality programming but quantity in terms of available games. The Pac-12 presidents might want to stay at 10 schools, but they need the inventory that a 12-team conference brings to get paid. That's important for football as well as basketball. Keep in mind, San Diego State would come into the Pac-12 and immediately be a top basketball school in the conference. Is it THE top school? Discuss.
• The DFW market has 2.96 million TV households. It would immediately become the Pac-12's biggest television market. San Diego has 1.13 million television homes. It's more comparable to Portland and Salt Lake City.
The Pac-12 is losing 5.7 million TV homes in one unfortunate swoop with USC and UCLA leaving. Adding SMU and San Diego State helps replace that divot with a combined 4.1 million homes.
• The Big Ten will have 33.9 million TV homes after USC and UCLA join. The ACC has 28.3 million and the SEC will be at 22.4 million with Oklahoma and Texas on board. The Big 12 will swell to 15.1 million homes after its expansion. The Pac-12 would have 16.5 million.
• I am told that UNLV, Fresno State and Boise State were NOT among the schools officially vetted by the Pac-12.
I was initially surprised that UNLV didn't get a serious look, but Las Vegas only has 757,000 television homes. TV homes are the love language of conference expansion. The other two schools I mentioned were not great academic fits in the minds of the presidents/chancellors, per sources.
• Speculate all you'd like about No. 3 and No. 4. Colorado State? Gonzaga? I'm not sure it matters at this point. It remains a two-school conversation. As a member of the Pac-12's CEO Group told me on Friday morning: "I think fair to say there was a gap to No. 3 and No. 4."
• Notre Dame was not an option for the Pac-12. Get that out of your head. Its contract with the ACC requires the Irish to join the ACC if… if… if… they ever join a conference. The new Notre Dame athletic director also is committed to staying independent. As long as the Irish have access to the College Football Playoff, they're a good bet to remain independent.
• It sure has been quiet at SMU, hasn't it? The Mustangs got a visit from Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff during basketball season. The visit went public. I've written a lot about this, but the conference was annoyed and blamed SMU's side for the leak. Ultimately, I don't think the Pac-12 seriously holds that against the Mustangs. I mean, the school brings nearly 3 million television homes to the table. That is a solid peace offering.
• Would the Pac-12 add San Diego State via expansion but not SMU? Maybe, but I find it increasingly unlikely. A source on campus at the Dallas-based institution told me the Pac-12 continued to engage with SMU after the Kliavkoff visit.
Unless I am missing something, the media-rights range I keep hearing doesn't work without the DFW television households included. Also, SMU is so intensely motivated to join that it would definitely join at a discount.
As one well-placed source at SMU told me on Friday morning: "My sense continues to be that we will be included if they expand."
Read more of columnist John Canzano exclusively at JohnCanzano.com.
