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College football has been unpredictable and wild in the last year. But one thing we can all count on is the SEC treating itself like a good friend.
Is that so bad?
The conference that has dominated the College Football Playoff — winning six of the nine invitational events — signed on for more of the same this week. And it's getting killed for looking out for itself.
The SEC approved an eight-game conference schedule for the 2024 football season. The vote wasn't unanimous. So there's that. But there are some good reasons why a 16-team conference doesn't want to play more games against itself.
SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey told reporters: "Nobody's shying away from anything. We just didn't add another game in a time of transition."
The Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 all play a nine-game conference schedule. It doesn't take a degree in analytics to understand that playing one more head-to-head game every season means 50 percent of the conference will have one additional loss.
In the wake of the SEC's announcement, Scott Dochterman of The Athletic went to social media and noted the jarring disparity in scheduling strategy in the coming football season. He came up with a terrific stat.
Teams that will play 10 or more Power Five opponents in 2023:
- ACC: 10 of 15 teams
- Big Ten: 13 of 14
- Big 12: 11 of 14
- Pac-12: 10 of 12
- SEC: 2 of 14
The SEC's motto: "It Just Means More."
Add an addendum: "We prefer to risk less, too."
Only Florida and South Carolina meet the criteria next season. Those two SEC members will play 10 different Power Five opponents. Michigan is the lone Big Ten team that doesn't meet that standard next season. And in the Pac-12, Oregon State and UCLA both play only nine Power Five opponents.
I sort of admire that the Beavers and Bruins are scheduling schools such as San Jose State and San Diego State in non-conference play. They appear to have learned something about self care from the SEC. As a Power Five member, the formula is simple — win the conference title with no more than one loss and you're in play for a playoff spot.
The CFP will expand to 12 teams in 2024. The SEC would like to get as many teams as possible into that postseason event. Those berths were worth $6 million a pop last season. The expansion and a new television deal will exponentially increase the payouts.
Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens served as the chair of the CFP committee three seasons ago. He had a front-row seat for the SEC's dominance. Mullens told me this week that he's spent some time thinking about strategy with the expanded playoff.
"If you win your league you're in," Mullens told me. "We will all have to look at how that changes the way you schedule."
I suspect the SEC members who voted against a nine-game conference schedule were reluctant to shift away from a strategy that has worked well. I don't blame them a bit. The SEC has dominated the playoff era, capturing 11 of the 36 available playoff spots.
Selfishly, we'd all like to see the SEC move to a nine-game conference schedule. Not just because it creates an apple-to-apples comparison for the selection committee, but because it would foster a bunch of entertaining matchups.
Would you change the scheduling model if you were the SEC?
Given that you've lapped the field?
Where's the logic in that?
I reached out to Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne on Friday to ask him about the vote and his school's thinking, particularly when it came to future non-conference games. The Tide have already booked games through 2035.
"We scheduled with the understanding that we would play eight SEC games," Byrne told me. "We've scheduled a lot of quality future games that are good for our program, student-athletes, conference and college football."
Alabama has a home-and-home series against Wisconsin slated for 2024 and 2025. The Crimson Tide have also added games against Florida State (2025/2026) and Ohio State (2027/2028).
Had the SEC moved to a nine-game schedule, Alabama would have had to unwind some of those contracts. Those aren't the traditional cupcake opponents. They're wonderful and compelling non-conference crossovers.
The SEC stuck with an eight-game conference schedule for 2024. It stinks for the rest of us. But is looking out for itself really the worst thing a football conference could do?
Read more of columnist John Canzano exclusively at JohnCanzano.com.
