Is Mike Lee the establishment now? Here's why some Lyman Republicans think so

SALT LAKE CITY — The state GOP convention on Saturday cracked a faction of the Utah Republican Party that had held firm for more than a decade.

Utah Sen. Mike Lee — the party's favorite product of the caucus system since his 2010 upset — took the stage to endorse his longtime friend, Rob Axson, for reelection as GOP chairman.

"I'm here not to tell you how to vote but to ask for your help," Lee told the 2,600 delegates in attendance. "I can't think of anyone who has done more to mobilize and unify our delegate base."

By the time he stepped down, Lee had become, in the minds of at least a few of the most fervent grassroots activists, a player in what they consider to be the state's establishment machine.

How Lee, one of the most consistentlyconservative lawmakers in Congress, could be viewed as an enemy by part of the GOP base came down to his repeated support for opponents of former state lawmaker Phil Lyman.

Over the course of a year, Lyman's unsuccessful bid for governor, noted for its unsubstantiated allegations of corruption and its historic write-in results, drew the zealous devotion of many of the party's most engaged members.

In that race, too, Lee endorsed the incumbent, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, to the disappointment of Lyman, who began reposting messages on X calling for Lee to lose in a primary. (Lyman later said this was a mistake by his campaign staff.)

But it was Lee's appearance at the convention that proved the tipping point for some of Lyman's most loyal defenders, who were, until then, also counted among Lee's most outspoken advocates.

Is Lee the establishment?

In the hours and days following the convention, the most common posts on X referencing the senator were those criticizing him for his endorsement of Axson — who defeated Lyman with 52.4% of the vote.

"I absolutely believe Mike Lee should be primaried," said Sophie Anderson, a state delegate from Davis County and one of Lyman's most dedicated volunteers.

Anderson said she is a member of dozens of group chats with fellow party activists where there is a "sizable number" of people who feel the same way about Lee as she does.

While Anderson believes that Lee started out in Congress committed to reflecting the party grassroots, she said that over time the "pressures of the establishment" have made Lee part of "the establishment."

But much of Utah's Republican Party would say that Lee's 14 years in the Senate show the opposite.

Few lawmakers have put up greater barriers to government spending increases, pushed harder against taxpayer funded abortions and pressured leadership more to follow proper budget processes than Lee.

There is "no daylight" between Lee and the most conservative wing of the Utah Republican Party, despite some hurt feelings caused by the GOP leadership race, according to Lee's chief strategist, Dan Hauser.

Lee remains friends with most of Lyman's closest supporters, Hauser said, even as some of the "inner circle" of Lyman's campaign have come out on social media to call Lee "the establishment" — a claim Hauser considers laughable.

"If the most conservative senator in the nation — who wants to starve off the special interest groups that (the Department of Government Efficiency) found guilty of hundreds of billions of dollars in waste, fraud and abuse, while also trying to shrink the size and scope of the government — is now establishment, then God bless America and the strong future that is coming," Hauser said.

Will Lee get a conservative primary challenge?

Regardless of how small or large the faction is of Lee's newfound critics, their reaction to the convention reveals something about the trajectory of conservative politics in the state, said Jason Perry, director of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics.

There appears to be a shift "within the MAGA movement itself," which may be overrepresented on social media, that judges candidates by an evolving definition of what it means to be "anti-establishment" instead of their conservative track record, according to Perry.

"No one really looks at Mike Lee and thinks that he has not been a leader in the conservative space," Perry said. "But to some of those Lyman supporters, that is not enough."

Spencer Stokes, president of lobbying firm Stokes Strategies and Lee's former chief of staff, said he has never seen a senator make himself or herself more available to delegates than Lee.

For example, throughout his tenure, Lee has never changed his personal phone number, and he has remained more consistent in his ideological stances than most politicians, Stokes said, calling Lee "the most principled elected official that I've seen in my lifetime."

"He is anything but an establishment candidate," Stokes said. "If you say that, you somewhat lose your credibility in the social media world you're in, because I don't think there's anybody in the state of Utah that would call Mike Lee an establishment candidate."

Stokes doubts that Lee will face a legitimate challenge from his right in 2028 because it would be nearly impossible to find a conservative "more dedicated to their cause than Mike Lee." But that doesn't mean someone won't challenge Lee from what Stokes called "the fringe."

Is the reaction to Lee real?

While social media algorithms often exaggerate extreme viewpoints, Mitt Romney's former chief of staff Matt Waldrip said not to underestimate the ability of pro-Lyman delegates to shape the state GOP.

"The active party members do have influence on what happens in the party around the state, and everyone capitulates to them in one way or another," Waldrip said. "So it actually does matter that you have these people that are torn up about this."

And Waldrip doesn't see the criticisms of Lee as stemming purely from anger over his endorsement of Lyman's opponents. It is true that with the rise of President Donald Trump, officials like Lee have become something of an "establishment," Waldrip said, and there are real ways in which Lee has strayed from the priorities of the GOP base.

Unlike with past massive spending packages, Waldrip pointed out, Lee has remained relatively quite on the "big, beautiful bill" making its way through Congress which could increase the federal debt by $4-7 trillion over the next decade.

Lee previously made a name for himself arguing that Congress had ceded too much power to the executive branch, Waldrip said. But Lee has not come out in opposition to Trump's flurry of executive orders, including his actions on tariffs, for which Lee introduced a bill in 2021 to prevent.

But for one conservative influencer in Utah, the entire debate around Lee is evidence that "the conservative movement in Utah seems to be falling apart at the seams."

Following the convention, Eric Moutsos, who posts prolifically about what he proudly calls "conspiracy theories," said that despite having some disagreements with Lee, Lyman and other prominent conservatives, he will never attack them publicly.

"Does this mean I will necessarily vote for any of them in certain races? It does not," Moutsos said, adding, "To me real conservatism also means being smart enough not to go after people who share the majority of your values and beliefs."

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