Hotline Week 8 picks: BYU and Utah struggle, Arizona, USC and WSU cover

Welcome the Hotline's weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 5-5-1 last week and am 45-40-2 for the season (52.9 percent). Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren't.

Week 8 stands as Separation Saturday, but not in the traditional sense of the term.

It's not about separating contenders from pretenders in the conference races. It's about separating five teams that were in the AP preseason poll from participation in the College Football Playoff.

In order of preseason ranking, the quintet is No. 2 Oregon, No. 5 Texas, No. 11 LSU, No. 13 Alabama and No. 16 Michigan.

All five have two losses, and the available data indicates a third defeat would leave them on the outside looking in with half the season remaining.

Only two teams with three losses have qualified for the CFP in the event's 12-team era: Clemson in 2024, when the Tigers won the ACC and received an automatic bid; and Alabama in 2025, when the Crimson Tide suffered the third loss in the SEC championship.

No team that completed the regular season with a 9-3 has received an at-large bid. The Ducks, Longhorns, Tigers, Crimson Tide and Wolverines are staring at that fate if they lose Saturday.

Had the 24-team playoff format been in place this season — it begins next year — all five would have at least one more loss available and perhaps two. (Any 8-4 teams from the SEC and Big Ten will be considered for the expanded field.)

Of the five on the brink Saturday, only Michigan is an underdog (to Indiana).

We expect the Wolverines to lose. But if last weekend's mayhem is indicative of future results, they won't be the only preseason favorite to enter the postseason abyss.

To the picks ...

(All times Pacific)

NC State (-6.5) at Stanford

Kickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: The Cardinal have been incomprehensibly bad on the road but sneaky-decent at home against second-tier opponents, and NC State qualifies as second tier. Pick: Stanford

Indiana (-7) at Michigan

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox

Comment: Instead of a specific comment about this matchup, let's pause to marvel at Indiana being a touchdown favorite in the Big House. Pick: Indiana

Cal (+19.5) at SMU

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on The CW

Comment: We fully expect quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele to start for the Bears, who are headed halfway across the country to face a ranked opponent in an early kickoff. Will his presence matter? Yes. Will it matter enough for the Bears to win outright? Probably not. Pick: Cal

Oregon (-9.5) at Illinois

Kickoff: 12 p.m. on Big Ten Network

Comment: Dante Moore's absence gives the Illini a chance, but Oregon's defense should rise to the moment (again) and keep the Ducks in the playoff chase for at least another week. Pick: Oregon

BYU (-6.5) at UCF

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox

Comment: One of the most obvious trap games of the season (any team, any circumstance). The undefeated Cougars are coming off the Notre Dame upset and flying across the country to face a low-profile opponent that has had two weeks to prepare. Pick: UCF

Michigan State (+14) at UCLA

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS

Comment: The Bruins will lose at some point, but not this week. No chance. Pick: UCLA

Kansas State (-3.5) at Arizona State

Kickoff: 12:45 p.m. on ESPN2

Comment: The Sun Devils have changed quarterbacks — to Mikey Keene — and we expect the offense to operate with more tempo and efficiency. If the defense tackles properly, the result should be a desperately needed victory for the Fightin' Dillinghams. Pick: Arizona State

Boise State (-13) at Washington State

Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network

Comment: All signs point to an easy victory for the Broncos, including two weeks of preparation. (If anything, the point spread looks a tad low.) But we wonder if the Cougars will muck it up just enough to hang around and cover the number. Pick: Washington State

Iowa State (+10) at Arizona

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPN2

Comment: Both teams are coming off byes, but one team has Noah Fifita. With a victory, the Wildcats would be bowl-eligible for the second consecutive season, a feat not accomplished since 2014-15. Pick: Arizona

USC (-3) at Wisconsin

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC

Comment: The Badgers don't have the playmakers needed to keep pace with USC in a high-scoring affair, so their mission is to draw the Trojans into a grinder with limited possessions and plenty of field goals. Unfortunately for the hosts, there's no rain in the forecast. Pick: USC

Mississippi (+3.5) at Texas

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: Always favor the team with the best quarterback. Pick: Mississippi

Houston (+6.5) at Utah

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: Our last pick of the week could be the best game of the day. Both teams are ranked and have designs on the Big 12 championship and a playoff berth. The Utes are extraordinarily difficult to beat at home, especially at night. This is the exception. We like the Cougars to cover — and win. Pick: Houston

Straight-up winners: Stanford, Indiana, SMU, Oregon, UCF, UCLA, Arizona State, Boise State, Arizona, USC, Mississippi and Houston

Five-star special: UCF. Although BYU might not realize it, the cross-country flight includes a stopover in Letdown City.