Hotline Week 10 picks: BYU covers in the top-10 rivalry game, UCLA wins on the road

Welcome to the Hotline's weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 7-6 last week and am 57-52-3 for the season (52.1%). Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren't.

Miami has made no secret of its desire to eventually join the SEC or Big Ten, even if that means spending a few years as an Independent. But for now, the Hurricanes are a member of the ACC that is both in good standing and atop the standings.

On Saturday, the Hurricanes will be an honorary member of the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC, as well.

Everybody needs them to beat Notre Dame.

The most anticipated day of the regular season features seven games matching ranked teams that will help clarify the College Football Playoff race. But one matters more than all the others: the top-ranked Hurricanes against the No. 11 Irish.

Notre Dame (7-1) has a carve-out in the CFP selection process that guarantees the Irish a berth if they are ranked in the top 12 at the end of the season.

With a victory Saturday evening, they would be on track for an 11-1 finish that would be more than enough for a bid.

But if they lose, the path narrows considerably.

The Irish could do no better than 10-2, with losses to the best teams on their schedule, Miami and BYU, and no wins over ranked opponents (based on the current CFP rankings).

The selection committee likely would take a skeptical view, just as it did last year when the 10-2 Irish were excluded in controversial fashion.

What's at stake this weekend for the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC? Only 14 percent of the at-large field.

If Notre Dame takes a spot, there would be six at-large bids for everyone else.

If Notre Dame is not involved, there would be seven.

That extra spot could go to a second team from the ACC or Big 12 or a fourth from the Big Ten or SEC.

However it's sliced and iced, it would be available for the power conferences and not allocated to an Independent with a soft schedule and its own rules.

On the biggest Saturday of the season, one game matters more than all the others. Playoff hopefuls across the Power Four should be rooting for the Hurricanes, who, notably, will be without their star receiver, Malachi Toney.

If the Irish win, they're in.

To the picks ...

(All times Pacific)

TCU (+9) at Arizona

Kickoff: Friday at 7:15 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: Road games on short weeks are always difficult, but TCU's disadvantage would be offset if, as we expect, Arizona suffers a post-Texas Tech letdown. This feels like a grinder that's close to the final possession. Pick: TCU

UCLA (-5.5) at Minnesota

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox

Comment: The preseason odds of this game being worthy of the 'Big Noon' broadcast window were 1-in-1,000. The Bruins must deal with the long flight and the early kickoff. The Gophers, who have beaten Iowa and Michigan, must deal with Bob Chesney's wizardry. Pick: Minnesota

BYU (+5) at Utah

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABC

Comment: The game of the day in the Big 12 and the game of eternity in this rivalry features a clear value play: BYU has proven time and again it can make the plays needed to win close games. We expect the outcome to be in doubt with two minutes left — the past two meetings were decided by four points (combined) — and cannot pass up the Cougars as an underdog of more than a field goal. Pick: BYU

Penn State (+2) at Washington

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1

Comment: This line makes no sense except for UW's uncertain quarterback situation. Our guess? Demond Williams starts and plays well. As for the other 21 positions, well, the Nittany Lions are effectively a decent Big 12 team with all the players Matt Campbell brought from Iowa State. Pick: Washington

Oregon (+7.5) at Ohio State

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS

Comment: What was expected to be the game of the day is an afterthought as the teams deal with injured quarterbacks and mounting losses. The Buckeyes are playing for their playoff lives. The Ducks have the narrowest of paths but are effectively eliminated. Pick: Oregon

Alabama (+5.5) at LSU

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: LSU might be the more talented team — heck, the Tigers be the most talented team — and Death Valley is Death Valley. But Alabama's Kalen DeBoer is one of the top big-game coaches in the country. LSU's Lane Kiffin is not. Pick: Alabama

Boise State (-17) at Colorado State

Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network

Comment: This feels like a trap game for the Broncos following their escape from Texas State and ahead of the showdown with Oregon State. That said, they should run for 500 yards against Colorado State's defense. We're joking, of course ... but only by 50 yards. Pick: Boise State

Colorado (+3) at Arizona State

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPN2

Comment: A must-win situation for Arizona State, which will benefit from freshman quarterback Jake Fette's experience at BYU. If the defense shows up, the Sun Devils should roll in a game they must win to make the bowl math manageable. Pick: Arizona State

Miami (+5.5) at Notre Dame

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC

Comment: This showdown has Game of the Year potential despite Miami receiver Malachi Toney's ankle injury. (It occurred during practice Wednesday and requires surgery.) The Irish are in must-win territory with their weak schedule and loss at BYU, while the Hurricanes' defense was wobbly against North Carolina. Pick: Notre Dame

West Virginia (+16.5) at Texas Tech

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: We aren't saying Rich Rodriguez will steal a victory — yes, an outright win — from the unsuspecting Red Raiders, who have been notably inconsistent this season. But we aren't saying he won't. Pick: West Virginia

Texas State (+6.5) at Oregon State

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW

Comment: A dangerous game for the Beavers following the deflating loss at Fresno State and with the trip to Boise State next week. The Bobcats can score with anybody. This should be a stellar finish to the epic day. Pick: Texas State

Straight-up winners: Arizona, UCLA, Utah, Washington, Ohio State, Alabama, Boise State, Arizona State, Notre Dame, West Virginia and Oregon State

Five-star special: BYU. Given the nature of this rivalry, with the games often playing out on the margins — an incompletion here, a failed fourth down there — the underdog getting five points is simply too tempting.