Big 12 forecast: BYU, Houston, Texas Tech and Arizona top our projections for the conference race

With season openers fast approaching, the legal system is grinding away to determine the fate of five-for-five seniors attempting to gain another year of eligibility. Each day, it seems, there's a stay. Or an injunction. Or a restraining order. It's enough to make your eyes glaze and head spin.

Will Arizona have the services of tailback Ismail Mahdi? Could NaQuari Rogers return to Utah's backfield? Will Texas Tech add quarterback Thomas Castellanos?

The Big 12 projections below exclude players whose eligibility hinges on the courts, but we considered all other factors that could impact the conference race:

— We accounted for coaching changes, both with the head coaches and coordinators. Which teams kept their brain trust intact?

— We accounted for quarterback competitions. If a clear-and-obvious starter has not emerged by this point, there's trouble.

— We absolutely accounted for the conference schedule rotation, both the hits and misses. For example, Kansas State misses Texas Tech, BYU and Utah but Cincinnati plays all three, plus Houston.

But admittedly, we did not account for ties.

There will be ties in the Big 12 race, and plenty of them. Two years ago, four teams tied for first place and three tied for fifth. Last year, three teams tied for fourth and four tied for seventh.

But the Hotline doesn't pick ties, Never has, never will.

So here you go …

1. BYU

Our pick to win the conference throughout the offseason features arguably the best combination of quarterback (Bear Bachmeier), tailback (LJ Martin), offensive line and defense in the conference. (The linebacker pairing of Isaiah Glasker and Cade Uluave is sensational.) Also, the Cougars have an established culture of success and a schedule rotation that does not include Texas Tech or Houston. As we forecast the season, BYU should be favored in every conference game except, perhaps, the Holy War. And coach Kalani Sitake's teams don't often lose to lesser opponents.

2. Houston

The Cougars won't catch anyone by surprise following their 10-win season. Coach Willie Fritz loaded up on linemen in the transfer portal — that depth should help Houston hold up in November — and has experience on every unit. Quarterback Conner Weigman and receiver Amare Thomas are two of the best at their positions in the conference. Another reason to like the Cougars: the schedule. They get Texas Tech early, when the quarterback situation in Lubbock could be unsettled, and don't play BYU or either of the Arizona schools.

3. Texas Tech

We are admittedly cutting against conventional wisdom by not picking the Red Raiders to successfully defend their conference title, and it might be blasphemous to some that we have them slotted third. The skepticism isn't tied to quarterback Will Hammond, who's coming off knee surgery and fills the spot that had been reserved for Brendan Sorsby. Instead, our forecast is based on things that cannot be explained or predicted — except, perhaps, by the football gods — but that rise up to derail seasons: bad bounces, tough luck with injuries and a handful of plays that go awry.

4. Arizona

If this projection proves reasonably accurate, the Wildcats will complete back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2014-15. From here, that's the challenge for coach Brent Brennan: establish a level of consistent success that elevates the program's profile. (If a conference title happens to follow, all the better for Arizona.) Quarterback Noah Fifita's return gives the Wildcats a chance to reach their ceiling, but there are holes to fill at receiver and along the defensive backfield. The Week 2 trip to BYU likely will determine Arizona's trajectory: frontrunner for the title or contender that lingers just off the pace.

5. Oklahoma State

The most predictable element of the Big 12 race is the unpredictability. At least one team will soar past expectations in a fashion similar to Arizona State in 2024 and Houston in 2025. But which one? Our money is on the Cowboys and first-year coach Eric Morris, who won 12 games with North Texas last season, and gifted quarterback Drew Mestemaker. Two years in the conference cellar will prove advantageous, especially early in the season as unsuspecting opponents count their date with OSU as a certain victory.

6. Utah

It has been a decade since the Hotline was as skeptical about Utah's prospects as we are this season, and the sentiment starts with the top of the org chart. All the trappings suggest first-year coach Morgan Scalley will orchestrate a smooth transition that produces another nine- or 10-win season in Salt Lake City, but we aren't convinced. Plenty of elite coordinators have turned into sub-elite head coaches. And it's not like Scalley's roster is airtight. The Utes lost a load of talent on the offensive line and the defensive edge. The schedule is fairly forgiving (no Texas Tech), which makes this projection a bit risky. No matter, the Hotline hasn't been wrong about anything in at least five minutes.

7. TCU

If you're looking for a team to emerge from the middle of the pack and contend for a berth in the conference championship, the Horned Frogs warrant consideration. They lost quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana and replaced him with Jaden Craig, who carved up the Ivy League last season with Harvard. If Craig is comparably effective this fall, TCU could contend. Notably, coach Sonny Dykes has finished ninth, fifth and seventh (chronologically) in the conference since his College Football Playoff run four seasons ago.

8. Arizona State

As of this writing, the Sun Devils had not revealed the identity of their starting quarterback. Cutter Boley and Mikey Keene have been engaged in a month-long quarterback competition to replace Sam Leavitt, and the lack of clarity at this point raises a yellow flag on the Hotline. (It would be red save for the presence of coach and QB whisperer Kenny Dillingham.) But the source of our slightly dim forecast doesn't end with the QBs. The Week 3 conference opener against Kansas in London is an X factor that could impact ASU for several weeks following the trip. Given the mid-season dates at Texas Tech and BYU, the Devils' trajectory should be set before November arrives.

9. Kansas State

As with so many other teams in the Big 12's muddled middle, the Wildcats need high-level quarterback play to gain separation. Is this the year (finally) when Avery Johnson delivers on the promise so many believe he possesses? As noted above, Kansas State caught a huge break with the schedule rotation. Without BYU, Texas Tech and Utah, they have a barrage of winnable games that could power an upturn under first-year coach Collin Klein.

10. Baylor

Perhaps no coach in the country, much less the conference, has spent as much time on the Hot Seat in the past three years than Dave Aranda. This fall is no exception after the Bears' bowl-less 2025 season. To secure his future in Waco, Aranda needs a breakthrough year from quarterback DJ Lagway, the Florida transfer whose ceiling is high and floor is low. Notably, the Bears finish with a triple whammy of BYU (road), Texas Tech (home) and Houston (road).

11. Cincinnati

At this point, the Hotline is merely attempting to identify the one-eyed team in the Big 12's kingdom of the blind. The Bearcats must rack up victories early, because nobody has a more difficult conference schedule: UC visits Arizona, Houston and BYU and faces Texas Tech and Utah at home. Coach Scott Satterfield needs to win at least two of the five to position the Bearcats for a bowl berth.

12. West Virginia

Few teams in the Big 12 possess a wider range of reasonable outcomes than the Mountaineers. We don't discount the possibility that second-year coach Rich Rodriguez will orchestrate a dramatic improvement — something comparable to what Willie Fritz accomplished with Houston last fall — or that the Mountaineers will slog to another finish on the conference's third tier. Much depends on quarterback Michael Hawkins, who transferred from Oklahoma and has a skill set suited for RichRod's system.

13. Kansas

The Jayhawks traded away a home date in order to face Arizona State in London, meaning coach Lance Leipold has the luxury of just three conference games in Lawrence. As a result, KU likely will need several road wins in order to become bowl-eligible for the first time in three seasons. Given the departure of multi-year starting quarterback Jalon Daniels and personnel questions on every unit, except perhaps tailback, that task looks daunting.

14. Colorado

The dark clouds are gathering over Boulder as coach Deion Sanders attempts to prove he can field a successful team without Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. He failed in that endeavor last year — the Buffaloes went from the talk of the sport to completely irrelevant in one year — and now must manage without his best offensive lineman, Jordan Seaton, who left for LSU. We see a two-deep devoid of high-end talent and a coach whose momentum is long gone.

15. UCF

The Knights could finish in the middle of the pack if everything breaks just right for Scott Frost in the second season of his second tenure in Orlando. The schedule works in his favor — UCF misses Texas Tech, Arizona and Utah — but we aren't convinced quarterback Alonza Barnett will replicate the success he experienced at James Madison. And if Barnett struggles, woe will follow for Frost and Co.

16. Iowa State

The Cyclones lost more than 50 players to the transfer portal, with many following Matt Campbell to Penn State, including quarterback Rocco Becht. How will first-year coach Jimmy Rogers, whose work last year at Washington State was simply solid, navigate the situation? We are not making a leap of faith given the status of his roster. It could be the longest year the Cyclones have experienced in ages.

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