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SALT LAKE CITY — SEC title and playoff stakes are on the line Saturday as No. 11 Oklahoma travels to Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on No. 4 Alabama.
With two losses already on the resume, Oklahoma has no more mulligans left to remain in the hunt for a playoff at-large spot, and a top-5 win would certainly boost them into the projected bracket.
For Alabama, this is another test in their gauntlet of an SEC schedule, where seemingly every week they are featured in a ranked matchup. So far so good, as they have navigated through league play undefeated and are riding an eight-game win streak since the opening loss to Florida State.
This matchup of blueblood programs will be Oklahoma's first trip to Tuscaloosa since 2003 (1:30 p.m. MST, ABC).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Alabama 74.9 (6th of 68 Power 4) | Oklahoma 59.5 (19th)
2024 season: Alabama 71.8 (9th) | Oklahoma 47.4 (44th)
2025 season: Alabama 77.6 (6th) | Oklahoma 67.2 (14th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Alabama to make the playoff and play in the SEC title game.
I was impressed with the stockpile of talent — No. 1 in five-year recruiting, No. 7 in transfers, and No. 2 in NFL draft watchlist — and thought Kalen DeBoer made the right move by re-hiring his longtime offensive coordinator and play-caller Ryan Grubb.
They have proven me right so far as they became the first SEC team ever to win four ranked matchups in four weeks (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee).
Oklahoma's average preseason pick by the magazines was 10th in the SEC and were 10th at SEC media days, but I had them up at sixth in the SEC and all the way at No. 14 nationally.
They have two wins over currently ranked teams (Michigan and Tennessee) and lost to No. 10 Texas by 17 and No. 7 Ole Miss by 8. This is Brent Venables' best OU team yet, and the defense is No. 2 in my opponent-adjusted metrics.
Alabama with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Alabama offense: 18th of 68 Power 4 teams, 7th passing, 47th rushing
Oklahoma defense: 2nd of 68 Power 4 teams, 11th pass defense, 4th rush defense
Grubb's return as play-caller, and the staff's selection to name Ty Simpson the starting quarterback have combined to form one of the nation's best passing attacks.
Alabama is No. 7 in my opponent-adjusted passing metric, Simpson has the best touchdown-to-pick ratio in Power 4 (21-to-1) and he is No. 3 in the SEC in QB rating. He is excellent at extending plays just long enough to make the extra read and deliver the ball to the correct receiver.
Speaking of receivers, Alabama's duo of Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams is one of the best in the country. They have needed to go pass-heavy due to a struggling offensive line ranked 125th in OL run push, 120th in yards per carry, and 126th in explosive rushing (out of 136 FBS teams).
They will not be able to establish a traditional run game against this Sooners front seven, which currently ranks in the top 10 in all key stat categories. Oklahoma is especially stout at the interior defensive line spots, with size, depth, and star power with R Mason Thomas leading the way.
The run game will be eliminated, so this side will come down to the Alabama receivers' ability to make plays in one-on-ones downfield.
Oklahoma with the ball
Oklahoma offense: 47 th of 68 Power 4 teams, 54th passing, 41st rushing
Alabama defense: 20th of 68 Power 4 teams, 18th pass defense, 53rd rush defense
Venables hired Washington State's offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle to install his spread passing attack. As an added bonus, he brought his quarterback John Mateer with him. So far, though, Mateer's best attribute has been his ability to scramble and make unconventional highlight-reel throws.
Those have been fewer than expected though. Mateer checks in at No. 14 (third worst) in the SEC in QB rating; and against FBS opponents he's thrown more picks (6) than touchdowns (5). Against ranked teams, the stats fall even further and he is No. 59 in QB rating and No. 49 in yards per attempt — Alabama's Simpson is fourth in both categories.
Oklahoma will have to win the line of scrimmage in the run game and try to attack Alabama's weakness in stopping the run. They rank just No. 81 in rush yards per carry allowed and 53rd of 68 Power 4 in my opponent-adjusted rushing defense stat.
Game prediction
Does Alabama have one last ranked win left in the tank? It has been an all-out sprint for them in SEC play with four straight ranked games, then a road-trip to South Carolina, then an interim-coach LSU team off the bye.
This is the toughest defense they have faced, in fact both defenses have the advantage over their opposing offenses in this one.
Look for a low-scoring battle that will be determined by the turnover margin and who can create more explosive plays in the pass game. Alabama checks both those boxes.
Alabama 23 | Oklahoma 14
