Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Oregon is one of the few top 25 teams without a win over a currently ranked team. That could change here in November as the back-loaded schedule heats up with tests against No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, and No. 23 Washington.
Oregon went through the first four weeks unchallenged with an average score of 51-9.
Then they traveled to the "White Out" and survived in overtime against then-No. 3 Penn State. Indiana came into Autzen Stadium and snapped its long home win streak 30-20, which is still Oregon's only loss on the season.
Saturday, the Ducks fly to the Midwest for a ranked matchup against 6-2 Iowa, a red-hot team that is also fighting for its playoff lives. Like Oregon, Iowa beat Penn State by one score and lost a close contest with No. 2 Indiana.
They destroyed two of their trophy rivals, Wisconsin and Minnesota, by a combined 78-3 score and are looking for their biggest home win since 2021. This one will be a classic Big Ten November setting: rain-soaked with soggy-grass (1:30 p.m. MST, CBS).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Oregon 77.7 (4th of 68 Power 4) | Iowa 51.3 (33rd)
2024 season: Oregon 77.4 (4th) | Iowa 56.7 (29th)
2025 season: Oregon 77.3 (6th) | Iowa 61.2 (22nd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Oregon to finish third in the Big Ten but still earn an at-large bid in the 12-team playoff bracket. So far, those projections have held true, with Oregon firmly behind undefeated Ohio State and Indiana but rated higher than the two-loss pack of USC, Michigan, Washington, and Iowa.
I projected Iowa 10th in the Big Ten, 35th nationally, and so far they have exceeded those expectations into November.
Oregon with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Oregon offense: 6th of 68 Power 4 teams, 9th passing, 2nd rushing
Iowa defense: 4th of 68 Power 4 teams, 5th pass defense, 8th rush defense
Phil Parker did it again. Iowa's Broyles Award-winning defensive coordinator overcame an exodus of graduations and has reloaded them into another top-five defense. They are one of just four defenses to rank in the top 10 of all three of my opponent-adjusted metrics.
Parker's defense slows their opponents down and waits long enough for a mistake, and they takes advantage of those mistakes better than anyone else. Pick any time interval, they have the most interceptions and takeaways. I'd call their timely turnovers "magic," but that would undersell the coaching job and scheme — it's by design.
Their top defense faces off against a top offense. Oregon is one of just three offenses in the top 10 in all three of my opponent-adjusted numbers. This side of the ball is a pure strength vs. strength.
After two seasons with extremely-veteran quarterbacks, Oregon's starter is sophomore Dante Moore, a former five-star super-recruit from Detroit. Moore has been excellent and ranks in the top 15 in both completion rate and yards per attempt, and is No. 3 in the all-encompassing QB rating.
He was knocked out of the Wisconsin game with an apparent nose injury but is expected back healthy Saturday.
Iowa with the ball
Iowa offense: 61st of 68 Power 4 teams, 67th passing, 28th rushing
Oregon defense: 6th of 68 Power 4 teams, 1st pass defense, 25th rush defense
Iowa will try to impose its run game and their style of play in rugged Big Ten weather conditions. The key to the entire game is whether Iowa can generate a consistent, productive run game and stay ahead of the chains.
They are one-dimensional, run only, and quarterback Mark Gronowski is a bigger threat with his legs than his arm (four TD, four INT this season). When Iowa gets to 3.7 yards per carry this season they are 6-0, under that (vs. Indiana and Iowa State) they are 0-2.
They face a tough task in Oregon's defense, a unit packed with blue-chip recruits and future pros. Not only is Oregon a top-25 rush defense, their pass defense is ranked No. 1 nationally.
They are No. 1 in pass yards per game (125), No. 1 in yards per attempt (5.0), No. 1 in completion percentage (49%), No. 3 at limiting explosive passes, and No. 1 in opponent QB rating.
Oregon will fully neutralize the Iowa pass game, and it comes down to the ground. On a per-player average, Oregon signed the No. 1 recruiting class and the No. 1 transfer haul this cycle. Many of those stars are on defense and they have held every opposing offense below their season averages.
Game prediction
In the preview magazine, I wrote that Oregon was my "national champion pick … in 2026." The talent level is championship-caliber, but their extreme youth made next year the likely breakthrough. So far, they are on schedule to make the playoff but need to prove themselves in these three November tests.
In my "last four games only" Game Grader, Iowa checks in at No. 7. But the Iowa pass offense is the weak-link here. All other units in this matchup are top-notch, but that lack of a pass threat tilts this game to Oregon.
Oregon 24 | Iowa 16
