Sea power: US Navy plans to spend $1 trillion over 30 years to fortify fleet

The USS Zumwalt is seen at the Huntington Ingalls shipyard in Pascagoula, Miss., Nov. 21, 2024. The U.S. Navy's proposed plans to ensure its continued worldwide sea superiority would exact at a hefty price — over $1 trillion over the next 30 years.

The USS Zumwalt is seen at the Huntington Ingalls shipyard in Pascagoula, Miss., Nov. 21, 2024. The U.S. Navy's proposed plans to ensure its continued worldwide sea superiority would exact at a hefty price — over $1 trillion over the next 30 years. (Gerald Herbert, Associated Press)


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KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • The U.S. Navy plans to spend over $1 trillion in 30 years to expand its fleet.
  • This expansion aims to counter growing threats from China and Russia, requiring significant shipbuilding efforts.
  • The Navy's fleet is projected to grow from 295 ships in 2025 to 390 by 2054.

WASHINGTON — Remember that spooky scene from "Jaws" where the police chief encounters the massive killer shark for the first time, then deadpans, "You're going to need a bigger boat."

With China advancing its massive effort to transform its navy into a high-tech, global armada, American military planners are responding in similar fashion: "We're going to need a bigger fleet."

The U.S. Navy's proposed plans to ensure its continued worldwide sea superiority would exact at a hefty price — over $1 trillion over the next 30 years, according to a Congressional Budget Office report.

But such aggressive shipbuilding efforts are thought essential as the Navy faces expanding global threats from China, Russia and other nations.

"The Navy's role in defending our nation and promoting peace has never been more expansive or mattered more," Navy Lt. Kyle Hanton, an Office of the Secretary of the Navy spokesperson, told the Associated Press.

The emerging "Fleet Race" pitting the United States and China is expected to be a defining element of the global military landscape in the coming years and decades.

Currently, China has approximately 234 warships, including approximately 50 frigates and the same number of destroyers, according to The Associated Press.

China also has two operating aircraft carriers and another undergoing sea trials, along with a massive and powerful coast guard.

The U.S. Navy has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.

Recent war games have shown China would lose many more vessels in a simulated clash with the U.S., but would be able to absorb the losses and continue fighting.

China's People's Liberation Army Navy operates primarily in waters off the Chinese east coast and in the massive, strategically crucial South China Sea.

But China's Navy has also signaled projected power — sending ships further abroad including the Mediterranean Sea and the Caribbean in its attempts to use its navy as an extension of its growing economic and diplomatic clout.

The People's Liberation Army Navy and Chinese Coast Guard ships have also patrolled in the East China Sea, where China claims a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan. While planes and ships from both sides have come into contact, no shots have been fired during such incidents, the Associated Press reported.

U.S. Navy: Time to build a beefier fleet

Each year, the Department of Defense submits a report with the president's budget describing the Navy's plan for its future fleet for the next 30 years.

Last month, the Congressional Budget Office released its report analyzing the Navy's 2025 plan — submitted during the Biden administration — and its associated costs.

"Overall," the report noted, "the Navy wants to build a larger fleet whose firepower is distributed among more ships than it is today."

Funding the world's most powerful navy

The Navy's 2025 plan would cost 46% more annually in real terms — adjusted to remove the effects of inflation — than the average amount appropriated over the past five years, according to the Congressional Budget Office report.

It is estimated that total annual shipbuilding costs would average $40 billion (in 2024 dollars) over the next 30 years.

Including the costs of operating and maintaining those ships, buying new aircraft and weapons, and funding the Marine Corps, the Navy's total budget would need to increase from $255 billion today to $340 billion (in 2024 dollars) in 2054 to implement the 2025 plan.

Augmenting the fleet

According to the budget office analysis, the number of U.S. Navy battle force ships would increase from 295 in 2025 — to 390 in 2054.

Before increasing, however, the fleet would become smaller in the near term, falling to 283 ships in 2027.

The U.S. Navy, the report added, would purchase a total of 364 new combat ships and combat logistics and support ships. Overall, under the 2025 plan, the Navy would buy more current generation ships and more smaller ships than it would have purchased under any of the 2024 plan's three alternatives.

The U.S. Navy fleet's firepower would be reduced over the next decade, but thereafter, as the fleet grew, its firepower would increase and become distributed among more ships.

Last December, the U.S. Navy's fleet numbered 296 battle force ships — including aircraft carriers, submarines, surface combatants, amphibious ships, combat logistics ships and some support ships.

To achieve its goal of 381 battle force ships, the Navy would buy 364 ships over the next 30 years — 293 combat ships and 71 combat logistics and support ships, according to the budget report.

If the Navy adhered to its schedule for retiring ships, it would have a fleet of over 300 ships by the early 2030s.

In 2054, the fleet would number 390 ships, a little more than the Navy's goal.

Boosting shipbuilding industry

Labor shortages, shifting defense priorities, last-minute design changes and cost overruns have put the U.S. behind China in the number of ships at its disposal — and the gap is widening, according to the Associated Press.

Navy shipbuilding is currently in "a terrible state" — the worst in a quarter century, Eric Labs, a longtime naval analyst at the Congressional Budget Office, told the Associated Press.

"I feel alarmed," he said. "I don't see a fast, easy way to get out of this problem. It's taken us a long time to get into it."

Over the next 30 years, the nation's shipyards would need to produce substantially more naval tonnage than they have produced over the past 10 years to reach the Navy's goals.

The rate of production of nuclear-powered submarines, in particular, would need to increase significantly, the budget report noted.

The Key Takeaways for this article were generated with the assistance of large language models and reviewed by our editorial team. The article, itself, is solely human-written.

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Jason Swensen, Deseret NewsJason Swensen
Jason Swensen is a writer for the Church News and contributor to the Deseret News. He has won multiple awards from the Utah Society of Professional Journalists. Swensen was raised in the Beehive State and graduated from the University of Utah. He is a husband and father — and has a stack of novels and sports biographies cluttering his nightstand.

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