Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn't splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what's past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.
The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.
Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.
The least interesting dates on Oregon State's schedule are the most important, at least for keeping the bowl math closer to long division than trigonometry.
The Beavers are halfway through the two-game stretch, with one victory in the books and a second challenge ahead.
Allow us to explain.
This unprecedented season began with loads of attention on the program and notable matchups against San Diego State, Oregon and Purdue. Meanwhile, the back half of the schedule features a string of teams with winning records.
Crammed between the first month and the second half lies a brief transition period that's easy to overlook but vital to the Beavers' bottom line.
They handled Colorado State last weekend, although two overtime periods were needed to secure OSU's fourth victory of the season.
Now comes a date Saturday afternoon at Nevada.
If the Beavers (4-1) are victorious, their magic number for bowl eligibility would be reduced to one.
Six games to win one game.
That matters because five upcoming opponents have winning records: UNLV (4-1), Cal (3-2), San Jose State (4-1), Washington State (4-1) and Boise State (4-1). The sixth team is Air Force (1-4), which was recently blown out by Navy.
The Beavers could secure a bowl berth simply by handling Air Force.
But if Oregon State loses this weekend at Nevada, the bowl bar doubles in height. The Beavers would need two wins against that collection of six opponents — handling Air Force alone would not be enough.
Their margin for error would drop, the pressure would increase and the math would get substantially more difficult.
To the updated bowl projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Utah (Big 12 champion)
Comment: Admittedly, the Hotline's faith could prove misplaced, but we're sticking with the Utes to win the Big 12 until they are mathematically eliminated. (Fine print: We reserve the right to change our mind if they lose at Arizona State on Friday night.)
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: Depending on the outcome of the super-mega collision against Ohio State this weekend, the Ducks could get moved into our pool of automatic qualifiers as the projected Big Ten champion.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: Based on their remaining schedule, the Cougars should win at least nine games and could win as many as 11, which would vault them onto the top of the sub-playoff bowls. (Their slim CFP chances vanished with the loss at Boise State last month.)
Holiday Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: The Buffaloes would benefit from mediocrity up and down the lineup because they have immense appeal to bowl officials (thanks to Deion Sanders) and because the Pac-12 selection process would allow the Buffs to jump teams that are within one victory of their total.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: Difficult to imagine the Las Vegas Bowl passing on USC given its brand appeal (unless, perhaps, Colorado is available). But the Trojans are 4-2 and have a difficult remaining schedule. So there is no guarantee that they will accumulate the eight or nine wins likely needed to reach Las Vegas.
Sun Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: The Huskies possess a wide range of destinations. With a few good breaks, they would land in the Alamo or Holiday bowls, but the LA and Independence bowls are distinct possibilities, as well. Such is life on the edge with a flawed team and rugged schedule.
LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The Bears make sense for Los Angeles since they aren't playing at USC or UCLA during the regular season. But there could be three or four teams with identical records competing for the same handful of bowl slots.
Independence Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: The politics could get interesting because whichever teams are remaining after the Independence Bowl's selection will likely land in a Texas-based game that has recruiting benefits. And both Arizona schools are emphasizing the Lone Star State.
ESPN bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: This likely would be the Gasparilla Bowl, in Florida, or one of two games in Texas (Armed Forces and First Responders). ESPN would set the matchups based on the teams available in other leagues.
At-large bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: If there are more eligible teams than available spots in the Pac-12 bowl lineup, the Beavers might end up filling a vacancy far, far away. Their prospects would be far better at 7-5 than at 6-6. Every win counts.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: Whatever microscopic chance the Cardinal had to reach the postseason vanished with the loss to Virginia Tech. The schedule is too tough, and the flaws are too numerous, for Stanford to win four of its final seven games.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: We foresee the Bruins absorbing their seventh loss before earning their third win. This season is all kinds of ugly.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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