Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
- BYU has emerged as a surprising contender in the Big 12 race, boasting an undefeated record of 5-0 overall and 2-0 in conference play.
- With a robust defense ranking 16th nationally and a steadily developing quarterback, Jake Retzlaff, the team is well-positioned for a potential title run.
- Analysts suggest that BYU's success is sustainable, given the lack of elite competition within the conference.
Welcome to the Holy Score, a weekly look at Utah and Brigham Young football in which we assess their performances with no punches pulled or apologies forthcoming. If one of them stinks, we'll tell you they stink. Most Utah and BYU fans are entirely reasonable — sarcasm alert! — but those who can't handle the truth should read the message boards instead.
One month down, there's no denying that Brigham Young is one of the most surprising teams in major college football.
The Cougars have a stout defense, an opportunistic offense and a quarterback gaining confidence and comfort by the week.
How high is the ceiling in Provo, where the Cougars are 5-0 overall and 2-0 in conference play?
The Hotline has never been shy about calling our shot (or concerned about being proven wrong), so we'll say it: The Cougars are a Big 12 title contender.
They are not a September flash. They are not merely the beneficiaries of good fortune and weak opponents. Their early-season success is absolutely sustainable through the meat of conference play, which resumes next week against Arizona.
The defense, which ranks 16th nationally in yards-per-play allowed, is good enough to earn a spot in the Big 12 championship game.
The offense could be good enough, as well, if quarterback Jake Retzlaff's development maintains its current pace through the middle third of the season. (That won't be easy, because each passing week provides opponents with more film to examine and more tendencies to counteract.)
Also, the competition is solid but not elite.
Let's start with Utah, the preseason favorite.
The Utes, too, are a contender. We would not bet a nickel against them reaching the championship game so long as quarterback Cam Rising returns following the bye week and remains healthy through the stretch run. (Utah's next game is Oct. 11, at Arizona State.)
For all the fretting in Salt Lake City, the pillars remain: The Utes are masterfully coached, terrific on the lines of scrimmage and stocked with enough playmakers to navigate the remainder of the season … if Rising returns.
The red zone offense needs work, sure. But other than the injury-ravaged 2023 season, when have the Utes not solved problems and gotten better as the weeks elapsed?
But Utah needs an opponent in the Big 12 championship. Could we see a Holy War rematch in AT&T Stadium on Dec. 7?
Don't dismiss the possibility, not for one second.
Oklahoma State's third-rate quarterback play has led to two consecutive losses.
Kansas is a mess.
Colorado is better than anticipated but flawed on the lines of scrimmage.
Kansas State has played well in four games but was awful in Provo (and thus would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with BYU if the teams finish deadlocked for second place).
Texas Tech, Arizona and West Virginia all have produced as many lows as highs thus far.
At this point, only Iowa State looks as consistently impressive as the Cougars — the very same Cougars who were picked 13th in the Big 12 preseason poll.
Which brings us to a matter of historical context.
If BYU finishes first in the regular-season race, it would constitute the greatest difference between projected finish and actual finish in Big 12 history.
The Cougars were picked 13th in the preseason media poll, so a first-place finish would constitute a difference of 12 spots.
The current mark is +11, set by West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers were projected 14th and finished tied for third, a rise of 11 positions.
Granted, there's a giant caveat: From 1996-2010, the preseason poll was based on Big 12 divisional finish; and from 2011-2022, there were only 10 teams, so it wasn't possible to produce a difference of more than nine spots.
During the division era, Iowa State generated the greatest upside surprise when the 2004 Cyclones, who were picked sixth in the North, tied for first.
And during the 10-school era, three different teams produced a differential of six spots between projected and actual finish: 2014 TCU, 2021 Baylor and 2022 TCU.
(Data was provided by the Big 12 office.)
So yes, the historical context used to judge BYU's success extends back one measly season, courtesy of West Virginia in 2023.
In our view, that would hardly diminish the accomplishment if the Cougars climb into the championship game.
The mere fact that the greatest upside surprise of the 10-school era was a six-spot differential between projected finish and actual finish provides plenty of perspective on what the Cougars could achieve if they scale 12 positions in a 16-team race.
There are two months remaining.
Plenty could go wrong for the Cougars.
But with their defense and the dearth of elite teams, the road is open.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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