Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn't splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what's past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.
The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.
Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.
Five weeks remain until this unprecedented season offers the first morsel of official clarity. On Tuesday, Nov. 5, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its initial rankings.
Yes, there's something else happening that day, but ESPN's programming schedule moves for no man, woman or presidential election.
The first selection show will air at 4 p.m. (Pacific) on Election Day, followed by similar broadcasts over the ensuing four Tuesday evenings.
(As the parent of two kids, the Hotline greatly prefers this schedule to having the selection show on Halloween, which was the case last year.)
The only show that truly matters, the reveal of the 12 playoff participants, is Sunday, Dec. 8 at 9 a.m.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Utah (Big 12 champion)
Comment: As long as quarterback Cam Rising returns after the bye week and remains healthy for the rest of the season — admittedly, that's no better than a 50-50 proposition — the Utes (4-1) will qualify for the Big 12 title game, then thump whichever team stands between them and the first CFP berth in school history.
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: The standard for the Ducks (4-0) to claim an at-large spot, in our view, is either two losses and no berth in the Big Ten title game or three losses overall, with the third coming in the Big Ten title game (against Ohio State).
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The aforementioned standard for the Ducks applies to the Trojans (3-1), as well. We just aren't convinced they can get through November with fewer than three overall losses, because they already have one and there are no soft spots on the schedule.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: Our continuing belief is the Deion Sanders Show will land in the most prestigious bowl available based on Colorado's win total. And the victory at UCF pushed the Buffaloes (4-1) within reasonable range of seven, which means they could vault any team with eight wins under the Pac-12 selection rules.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: Hard to believe the same team that lost at Kansas State by 24 could win at Utah by 13, except that the Big 12 is utter mayhem. As a result, the Wildcats (3-1) are running one game ahead of projections thus far.
Sun Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: As is the case with Oregon State, the Cougars (4-1) possess a high ceiling and a low floor when it comes to the postseason. They could be highly coveted because of their unique story or unwanted because of, well, their unique story.
LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: If the Bears (3-1) beat Miami this week, we will entertain the possibility of a berth in the Alamo, Holiday or Las Vegas bowls. At that point, the Hotline will immediately begin preparations for the apocalypse.
Independence Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: This projection assumes the Huskies (3-2) become bowl-eligible, which is hardly a given considering the difficult schedule and UW's propensity to find ways to lose.
ESPN bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: This could be the First Responders, Armed Forces of Gasparilla bowls, based on the pool of available teams. The bowl math depends entirely on the next two weeks for the Beavers (3-1).
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona State
Comment: Although we believe the Sun Devils (3-1) will handle their business against Kansas, the remaining schedule features a few too many potholes for the Hotline to feel comfortable projecting a bowl berth.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: The pillowy soft ACC schedule means a bowl berth is possible for the Cardinal (2-2) if the quarterback situation is rectified. But that feels improbable.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: The Bruins (1-4) have a better chance to lose 10 games than they do to win six, and — if you're wondering — there is not a hint of sarcasm in that statement.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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