Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
Brigham Young is No. 22 in the national rankings but No. 2 nationally in a metric some fans might find more important: The Cougars have beaten the point spread this season like nobody else in major college football, except Tennessee.
They have not only covered the spread in all four games; they have beaten it by at least 10 points each week.
The Cougars were 16.5-point favorites in the season opener against Southern Illinois and won by 28.
They were 12.5-point underdogs at SMU and won by three.
They were 9.5-point favorites at Wyoming and won by 20.
And they were 7.5-point underdogs against Kansas State and won by 29.
In all, they have covered the spread by 73.5 points, an average of 18.4 per game.
That's second only to Tennessee (21.5 per game), according to teamrankings.com.
This week, the Cougars are 3.5-point underdogs at Baylor, which lost in soul-crushing fashion last weekend at Colorado. (The Bears allowed a Hail Mary at the end of regulation and lost in overtime.)
Pick against the Cougars at your peril. You won't see the Hotline standing in front of the BYU locomotive.
To the picks …
Last week: 5-4
Season: 18-16
Five-star special: 2-2
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Washington (+2.5) at Rutgers (Friday)
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Play this game on a Saturday in the middle of the country, and it's a toss-up. But play it in Piscataway on a Friday and the scale tilts heavily to the home team. In fact, the Huskies are facing a clear competitive disadvantage. The line should be closer to a touchdown. Pick: Rutgers
Brigham Young (+3) at Baylor
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on FS1
Comment: BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been inconsistent on the road, but the defense is stout everywhere. The raucous win over Kansas State combined with the travel and early kickoff could result in some misfires. But look for the Cougars to grind down Baylor in the second half. Pick: BYU
Oklahoma State (+4.5) at Kansas State
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ESPN
Comment: Both teams are regrouping after brutal losses last weekend. (OSU was badly outplayed at home by Utah while KSU whiffed in all facets at BYU.) The home crowd should offer comfort to quarterback Avery Johnson, who struggled in Provo, and fuel the Wildcats to a bounce-back performance. Pick: Kansas State
Louisville (+6.5) at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Peacock
Comment: The Cardinals dominated the fourth quarter on their way to a double-digit victory last year, and we suspect coach Jeff Brohm simply has Marcus Freeman's tactics figured out. Also, there is enormous pressure on the Irish after their home loss to Northern Illinois — they need to run the table to secure a College Football Playoff berth. Pick: Louisville
Georgia (-1.5) at Alabama
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: Alabama is a home underdog for the first time since the late 2000s, and we cannot resist the chance to take the points. It's the first major test for Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer, who has proven to be quite capable in big games. Pick: Alabama
Washington State (+7.5) at Boise State
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on FS1
Comment: One of the most significant games of the weekend with CFP implications across the Power Four and Group of Five. Can the Cougars contain Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty? Will the Broncos slow WSU quarterback John Mateer? The hosts win, but the visitors cover. Pick: Washington State
Arizona (+11.5) at Utah
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: This is Arizona's Big 12 opener, but the performance two weeks ago at Kansas State (in a nonconference game) illuminates the task ahead on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Utah could be vulnerable to a letdown after the mammoth effort at Oklahoma State without quarterback Cam Rising. Pick: Arizona
Oregon (-25.5) at UCLA
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Ducks had two weeks to prepare while the Bruins are recovering from a taxing loss at LSU. Combine the circumstances with the disparity in personnel and coaching and this feels like a blowout. Pick: Oregon
Straight-up winners: Rutgers, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Alabama, Boise State, Utah and Oregon
Five-star special: Oregon. We usually avoid point spreads in the 20s because of the potential for backdoor covers. But there is no backdoor available here for the Bruins. Only a woodshed.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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