Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah and Oregon to the CFP as USC's outlook dims

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn't splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what's past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.

College Football Playoff

Team: Utah (Big 12 champion)

Comment: With their victory at Oklahoma State, the Utes took a giant step toward securing the present (a berth in the Big 12 championship game) and the future (via the play of freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson). Pretty good outcome for three-and-a-half hours of work in 100 degrees.

College Football Playoff

Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)

Comment: Two-loss teams from the Big Ten and SEC will make the CFP — of that, there is little doubt. But would a three-loss loser of the Big Ten or SEC championship games make the cut? Might depend on the circumstances.

Alamo Bowl

Team: USC

Comment: Speaking of two-loss Big Ten teams, the Trojans have too many difficult games remaining to clear that bar, in our estimation. By the first weekend in December, they could regret the loss in Ann Arbor more than they already do.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Washington State

Comment: With at least eight wins — and that should not be a problem — the Cougars would be one of the most coveted teams available because of the feel-good nature of their story and an energized fan base. But we aren't convinced they would be more coveted than USC.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Colorado

Comment: Reminder on Pac-12 bowl selection policy: One team cannot leapfrog another if there is at least a two-game difference in overall record. We believe if CU is within one victory, it will have priority over all competitors.

Sun Bowl

Team: Arizona

Comment: Hard to believe the Wildcats, whose campus is a mere 300 miles from El Paso, have not participated in the Sun Bowl since 1992. In the intervening 32 years, ASU has made the trip five times.

LA Bowl

Team: Washington

Comment: The Huskies are a good candidate to plunge down the pecking order if bowl officials across the board believe UW fans are less than enthusiastic about a season that cannot come close to matching 2023.

Independence Bowl

Team: Oregon State

Comment: Beavers face two critical weeks to make their bowl math work (Colorado State at home, Nevada on the road) given the challenging stretch run.

ESPN bowl

Team: Cal

Comment: The ESPN pool of games for at-large teams includes the Armed Forces and First Responders Bowls, which are located in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. That location would provide the Bears with more valuable recruiting exposure than some of the Pac-12's traditional bowls.

Non-qualifier

Team: Arizona State

Comment: We love the start (3-1), but we're lukewarm on the middle of the schedule and downright skeptical about the finish. And that combination leads to a darkening outlook for the Sun Devils.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: The Cardinal's bowl math got incrementally easier with the victory at Syracuse, but upcoming home dates with SMU and Louisville look vastly more difficult. Those dynamics offset, leaving us to draw the same conclusion as last week, and the week before that.

Non-qualifier

Team: UCLA

Comment: Better chance the Bruins win three games than six, if we're being honest about their personnel and schedule. The former is subpar; the latter, insane.

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