Week 4 picks: Washington in must-win mode, Utah survives at Oklahoma State

In college football's upper left corner, the trajectories have crossed.

The school left behind is out in front. Washington State has an undefeated record, Apple Cup trophy, accelerating momentum and a soft enough schedule to spark whispers of a potential College Football Playoff berth.

Meanwhile, the school with a prosperous future has a wobbly present. Must-win games are rare in September, but Washington is facing exactly.

If first-year coach Jedd Fisch and his rebuilt roster hope to secure a bowl berth in coming weeks, they had best handle Northwestern on Saturday afternoon.

If the Huskies (2-1) lose — and we should note: they are double-digit favorites — then their postseason math turns difficult.

They would need four wins in their final eight games, but the schedule is not for the meek. It features two blue bloods, three ranked teams, four trips across the country and five road games.

In our view, UW would be heavily favored in one of the eight games, when UCLA visits Seattle in the middle of November. And by then, it might not matter. The dates with USC, Michigan, Penn State and Iowa present obvious challenges. The trips to Rutgers and Indiana are tougher than they look.

If the Huskies handle Northwestern, the math eases and their path widens. And they should handle Northwestern, which has two cupcake wins (Miami-Ohio and Eastern Illinois), one close loss (Duke) and a paucity of high-end talent.

But in the aftermath of an Apple Cup in which UW committed 16 penalties, couldn't score from the 1 when it mattered and was outplayed on the crucial down (third), the only thing that can be taken for granted is the importance of a victory Saturday afternoon.

It's not even fall, yet UW is against the wall.

To the picks …

Last week: 2-6
Season: 13-12
Five-star special: 1-2

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

(All times Pacific)

Stanford (+8.5) at Syracuse (Friday)

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: The Cardinal's ACC opener requires a cross-country trip, but it was idle last week and should be ready for the physical challenge. Does Stanford have the defensive personnel to slow down Orange quarterback Kyle McCord, the Ohio State transfer who has thrown eight touchdowns in two games? Not likely. Pick: Syracuse

San Jose State (+11.5) at Washington State (Friday)

Kickoff: 7 p.m. on The CW

Comment: The post-Apple Cup celebration ran late and long in The Palouse, which begs the only question that matters: Have the Cougars focused on SJSU to the degree necessary during their short week of preparation? The Spartans are 3-0 under new coach Ken Nuimatalolo and won at Air Force in Week 2. Pick: San Jose State

Arizona State (+3) at Texas Tech

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1

Comment: The Sun Devils are 3-0 against the spread and we are riding that train, not standing in the way. Also, Texas Tech's defense is awful until proven otherwise: The Red Raiders couldn't stop Abilene Christian (51 points) and are allowing 182 yards per game on the ground. ASU tailback Cam Scattebo should do as he pleases. Pick: Arizona State

USC (-6) at Michigan

Kickoff: 12;30 p.m. on CBS

Comment: Once upon a time (as in, a few weeks ago), the Wolverines were favored by double digits, but their early struggles and USC's surprising defense have caused a remarkable flip in the money flow. Given Michigan's offensive offense, the Trojans are well positioned for victory as long as they don't contribute to their own demise with turnovers and drive-killing penalties. That said, the line is a bit high for our liking. Pick: Michigan

UCLA (+24.5) at LSU

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: After a bad home loss to Indiana, the Bruins head to Death Valley for an afternoon kickoff, when the temperature could approach 100 degrees on the field. This isn't an elite LSU team — that was apparent in the loss to USC. But the Tigers have more than enough talent to dominate at the line of scrimmage. The spread is large enough to make us wonder about a backdoor cover. Pick: UCLA

Utah (+2.5) at Oklahoma State

Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Fox

Comment: Our pick for the game of the day, not only in the Big 12 but nationally, with the winner taking pole position in the conference race. OSU's running game with Ollie Gordon is a major test for the Utes. But can a defense that yielded 648 yards and 31 points to Arkansas slow down Cam Rising and Utah's array of playmakers? We're skeptical. Pick: Utah

Northwestern (+10.5) at Washington

Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1

Comment: Good chance that as evening turns to night, UW fans will be referring to this as the Jonah Coleman Game. But it could be a slog for three quarters. Pick: Northwestern

Cal (+2.5) at Florida State

Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN2

Comment: Roles are reversed as the undefeated Bears face the winless Seminoles. FSU quarterback DJ Uialagelei threw five touchdowns passes against Cal last year for Oregon State and should be confident. We wonder about the Bears flying back to the southeastern quadrant. They handled Auburn two weeks ago, but will jet lag play a role? Pick: Florida State

Purdue (+4.5) at Oregon State

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. on The CW

Comment: Two teams attempting to recover from beat downs on their home turf. The Beavers lost to Oregon 49-14 while the Boilermakers were demolished by Notre Dame 66-7, with their lone touchdown coming after the Irish had scored seven of them. Pick: Oregon State

Straight-up winners: Syracuse, Washington State, Arizona State, USC, LSU, Utah, Washington, Florida State and Oregon State

Five-star special: Florida State. We sense a tad too much hype for the Bears, who are not used to success on this scale, while FSU is due for an upturn.

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