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The following six head coaches are under significant pressure this season, albeit in markedly different ways.
To be clear: The Hotline doesn't expect any of them to be terminated. Instead, their individual circumstances, when viewed collectively, allow us to examine the various forms of industry heat entering a season like no other in the sport's history.
(Listed alphabetically by school)
Arizona's Brent Brennan (first year)
Contract status: Signed through the 2028 season
Heat index: Room temperature
Comment: Brennan executed a masterful rebuild at San Jose State, but the Arizona job is hardly a reclamation project. The Wildcats won 10 games last year, beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl and enter the Big 12 with many returning core pieces. Put another way: The downside risk for Brennan is arguably greater than the upside potential — his challenge is to prevent a marked regression. In our view, seven wins is probably the minimum needed to avoid low-level grumbling.
Brigham Young's Kalani Sitake (ninth year)
Contract status: Signed through the 2027 season
Heat index: Thawing quickly
Comment: Of the six coaches listed here, Sitake is probably closest to termination — and yet that step seems unlikely. After two stellar seasons during the COVID era, the Cougars have lost all momentum: They were 8-5 two years ago and 5-7 last season, their first in the Big 12. The conference change represented a jump in competition for BYU and is central to any reasonable evaluation of Sitake's performance. That said, every mediocre season makes it that much more difficult for the Cougars to eventually ascend the Big 12 hierarchy.
Cal's Justin Wilcox (eighth year)
Contract status: Signed through the 2027 season
Heat index: Imperceptible
Comment: We have included Wilcox here as a means of addressing his status on any Hot Seat lists that might surface on social media in coming weeks or months. There's nothing to see here, folks. Wilcox just completed a season in which he slayed Cal's top rivals (Stanford and UCLA) and led the Bears to a bowl game (Independence). Add the budget woes, intrinsic institutional hurdles and the transition into a new conference and, in our view, the likelihood of dismissal — even if the season goes sideways — is just this side of infinitesimal.
Colorado's Deion Sanders (second year)
Contract status: Signed through the 2027 season
Heat index: "We love the heat index. We respect the heat index. This doesn't have anything to do with the heat index. But we aren't doing anything with the heat index. Next category."
Comment: To judge Sanders' performance solely by his on-field record is to ignore the greater impact of his 18 months on the job: He has elevated Colorado's national profile (e.g., applications for admissions and merchandise sales) beyond the school's wildest dreams. Not even another losing season would prompt the university to reconsider his employment. That said, the stakes are not zero for Sanders in 2024. If the Buffaloes don't qualify for a bowl game — their conference schedule is very difficult — the recruiting momentum could ebb. Also, the acceptance of Sanders' management style could begin to wane internally. He's the public face of the university, and tolerance for shenanigans generally moves in lockstep with on-field success.
Oregon State's Trent Bray (first year)
Contract status: Signed through the 2028 season
Heat index: Warmer than the thermostat indicates
Comment: Bray, a longtime position coach with just two seasons of coordinator experience, has jumped from the frying pan into the inferno. As a rookie head coach, he takes charge of a program that was cast adrift in the realignment game and lost its top players to the transfer portal. Barring a complete collapse, Bray's job is secure. But he's under considerable pressure to keep the Beavers relevant until a conference home can be found. How do we define relevance? A bowl bid is essential. And it would greatly help matters if Oregon State is 1) competitive with Oregon, 2) beats Purdue and 3) wins eight games.
USC's Lincoln Riley (third year)
Contract status: Terms undisclosed
Heat index: Toasty with a chance of scalding
Comment: As with many others on this list, Riley's job status is secure unless the situation turns bleak. That said, bleak at USC is not the same as bleak at 95 percent of FBS schools. Where's the bar for termination for a third-year coach making eight figures annually while navigating a new conference and facing a preposterously difficult schedule? It probably depends on more than the win total. The Trojans must show noticeable improvement on defense and, above all, look like they belong on the upper echelon of the Big Ten.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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