SALT LAKE CITY — I wasn't exactly shy about telling people this before the draft: I didn't think Grayson Allen was a particularly good basketball prospect.

Utah Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey, though, is a very good talent evaluator. He drafted Donovan Mitchell No. 13 a year ago, selected Rudy Gobert at No. 27 in 2013, and even small wins like Rodney Hood late in the first round in 2014 qualify.

Sure, there have been missteps (Trey Lyles, Trey Burke), but overall, Lindsey's return has far exceeded the value of his picks during his tenure as the Jazz's top basketball executive.

So when Lindsey selected Grayson Allen at No. 21 on Thursday night, I was surprised. Lindsey and his staff have spent thousands of hours scrutinizing Allen and decided that he was both A) the best prospect available at No. 21 and B) worth rejecting what Lindsey called "a really good offer" in trade from another team when the Jazz made the selection. Why? Lindsey's choice made me spend some time Thursday and Friday re-evaluating what I think of the Duke senior.

Why was I skeptical?

Allen will turn 23 years old before the NBA season begins. Why does this matter? First of all, it significantly shortens the amount of time before Allen's prime the Jazz's vaunted development staff will have to work with him as a player. Take a look at this graph, made by ESPN analyst Jeremias Englemann:

A player's peak is from about 25 to 29 years old, but if Allen is starting at 23, there's just a significantly smaller amount of growth to expect when compared to a younger player. Even a player like Donovan Mitchell, drafted at 21, can expect two to three times the growth over the course of their youth than a 23-year-old. Obviously, that's not the case for every player (see Joe Ingles), but it's a good general rule.

What that means is that, if you're going to draft an old prospect, they should be able to step in right away and be able to help. Unfortunately, I didn't think Allen's production as a junior and senior was indicative that he should be a solid NBA player. Averages of 15 points per game on 40 percent shooting are fine for college players, but usually, the step to the NBA makes seniors who put up statistics like that into fringe NBA players.

That's why statistical models aren't very friendly to Allen. Allen was ranked 45th in ESPN's modeling of the 2018 draft, with only a 3 percent chance of becoming an All-Star and an 18 percent chance of becoming a starter. By those numbers, the Jazz could have done much better at No. 21.

Beyond that, I'm very worried about Allen's defensive impact. Allen didn't get many steals before the 2017-18 season (when he did get 1.7 per game). But even with the steals, it seems like Duke fans were really, really down on Allen's defense. This Duke message board thread is a good indication.

"His man to man perimeter defense is causing a lot of our problems on defense. His assigned man CONSISTENTLY beats him off the dribble or he just dies on the pick and roll and this makes our defense constantly rotate to cover him which cause breakdowns. Just constant flux with slashing guards dishing off easy buckets to the big guys," one post said.

I would not trust this message board denizen if it were the first I had heard this complaint, but those who watch significantly more Duke basketball than I have consistently felt this way. For example, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor called Allen a "flat-footed perimeter defender who lacks lateral quickness and gets smoked by lesser players."

Let me be clear: If Allen doesn't keep guys in front of him on defense at the college level, he will be unplayable in the NBA playoffs without significant improvement. If he dies on a screen defending pick and roll in a Jazz uniform, Utah's defensive scheme dies with him, as Gobert can't play 2-on-1 defense for more than a second or two. This is the easiest and most obvious way Allen can bust. Unless he is James Harden-level on offense — and he won't be — he can't be a big defensive minus in the NBA and be a successful pick.

Why Allen might even be good

The good news: Apparently Allen's workout circuit went a long way to alleviate these concerns. When matched up against NBA prospects at CAA's workout in California, he more than held his own defensively, according to multiple sources. In Utah, Allen matched up against UCLA's Aaron Holiday, Villanova's Jalen Brunson, and Creighton's Khyri Thomas, and won every battle.

There's a sense that Allen's bulldog attitude and effort can be channeled more productively. He's tough and clearly cares on the defensive end, but it doesn't seem as if he was instructed well at Duke, who even frequently played a zone to just get those defensive concerns out of the way. The Jazz have done a good job of developing players defensively, getting good defense out of athletes and non-athletes alike.

Allen's shooting percentages weren't impressive at Duke in his last two seasons, but if you look a little deeper, there's reason to be optimistic about how it will translate to the NBA for two reasons.

First, on unguarded catch-and-shoot shots, Allen was weirdly terrible: shooting only 30.9 percent on 66 attempts. On catch-and-shoots when a defender was close by, Allen was great, making 46 percent of his shots on 82 attempts. Nearly all of those are 3-point shots while being contested, suggesting he'll probably deal well with NBA length. Clearly, something about shooting open shots can be adjusted.

Allen's collegiate free-throw shooting, a good indicator of shooting prowess, also suggests he'll be a good 3-point shooter. ESPN's Kevin Pelton produces these modeled NBA 3-point shooting estimates using a mix of both 3-point and free-throw percentages:

That Allen is considered a top-5 shooter in the class, and up there with Kevin Huerter and Trae Young, is impressive.

Finally, I was wildly impressed with Allen's plus-minus numbers during the season. Duke was 16.5 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents with Allen on the floor in 2017-18: 13.2 better on the offensive end, and 3.3 points on the defensive end. Those are excellent numbers and made him one of the very best plus-minus players in college basketball last year. Where Allen's senior numbers don't stand out in the traditional way, he clearly made his team hugely better when he was on the floor.

At first, I excused that number, because Allen was a starter with two top-10 picks (Wendell Carter Jr. and Marvin Bagley III). Of course, his plus-minuses should be good, he has two of the best players in college basketball on his side. But then I looked at his teammates' plus-minuses:

Team	Name	O-On/Off	D-On/Off	Sum
Duke	Grayson Allen	13.19	3.31	16.5
Duke	Gary Trent, Jr.	5.48	-3.2	2.29
Duke	Marvin Bagley III	7.67	-2.43	5.24
Duke	Trevon Duval	1.44	-8.22	-6.77
Duke	Wendell Carter, Jr.	3.04	5.57	8.61
Duke	Javin DeLaurier	-10.01	4.34	-5.67
Duke	Marques Bolden	0.17	-4.64	-4.47

They're all much lower. Duke was great when Allen was on the floor and very average when he wasn't. Allen's shooting, passing, and decision making made a huge difference on the offensive end.

If that translates to the NBA, Allen might be one of those prototypical "glue guys," whose traditional stats don't stand out but make a difference on the scoreboard anyway. In other words, the Rudy Gobert's, the Joe Ingles', the Ricky Rubio's of the world, all top-50 players by adjusted plus-minus. Putting those kinds of players together on one roster seems to be one of the core themes of Lindsey's time as GM, and Allen fits that mold.

I'm very anxious to see Allen's summer league performance. If he struggles against the varied cast of guard opponents who are trying to make it to the NBA, it will be a very bad sign for a prospect of his age. On the other hand, he has a chance to show exactly what made those workouts stand out and that he can continue to be a difference maker at the next level.

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