Who's going to be available when the Jazz pick? The reporting-based NBA mock draft


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SALT LAKE CITY — There are a lot of mock drafts out there these days. This is one of them.

But I'm trying to do something a little bit different with this one. So many mock drafts rely on the mocker's intuition, read of the team situation, and which prospects they personally like best. That's fair, and I've certainly done that in the past. It's a good exercise.

This one is what I'm going to call a "reporting only" mock draft. In other words, I'm just going to go off of what has been reported each team is actually thinking while making the pick. Best case, like with the No. 1 pick, we have reporting from the top reporters in the industry about what the team will do. With some picks, especially those in small markets or at the bottom of the first round, there's been no widely reported indication about any way the team will go. In those cases, I've gone deep, listening to radio appearances by team media, scouring workout schedules to see which prospects have visited a team multiple times, and examined the past history of that front office.

For most of the picks in the first round, we have some hints, though. There's a lot of smoke screening at this time of year, but I've done my best to decipher fact from fiction at each spot.

The big goal is to figure out who is likely to be available for the Jazz to select at No. 21. Here's the mock.

1. Phoenix Suns: DeAndre Ayton, Arizona

When asked about the chances of being drafted by the Suns, DeAndre Ayton said it himself: "I know I'm going No. 1."

ESPN's Jonathan Givony agreed when reporting that "The Suns appear to be locked into Ayton with the top spot" in their latest mock draft. Reporters around the league agree, though nearly all of them cite executives from other teams, not the Suns themselves. Suns GM Ryan McDonough was on ESPN to discuss the pick on Monday, and while he didn't confirm it was Ayton, he said that his plan is to try to keep the league in suspense for another few days, the perfect wink to what everyone appears to already know.

The only thing that could spice things up is a trade of the No. 1 pick, and while The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported that McDonough might try that in exchange for Kawhi Leonard, Arizona Republic writer Scott Bordow disagreed strongly, saying "Not happening." I trust Bordow.

2. Sacramento Kings: Marvin Bagley III, Duke

There's no wide agreement on what the Kings will do here, though nearly everyone agrees on the three candidates. USA Today's Sam Amick summed it up by saying "Kings appear to be pondering (Michael) Porter Jr., (Luka) Doncic and (Marvin) Bagley more than the rest, with the assumption that Phoenix takes Ayton No. 1."

But over the last 24 hours, everyone seems to be pointing in the direction of Bagley. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski has reported repeatedly that the Kings are less high on Doncic than their peers. And Givony today reported that "they are not very high on Luka Doncic and have their sights set firmly on Bagley." The Kings' dislike of Doncic has been well-established for months, even before it looked like the Kings would have a chance to take him.

Givony also noted on Zach Lowe's podcast Tuesday that most of the other players have actively tried to dissuade Sacramento from drafting them, save Bagley.

What about Porter? Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Woo chimes in here: "There remains warranted skepticism that Sacramento would actually pull the trigger on him at No. 2." The Kings went to Porter's Chicago meeting, as did most of the top teams in the lottery, but it'd be a dangerous selection given Porter's health issues.

3. Atlanta Hawks: Luka Doncic, Real Madrid

Woj reported this Tuesday night:

> Luka Doncic has moved to forefront of Atlanta's internal conversation on the third overall pick in Thursday's NBA Draft, league sources tell ESPN. Michigan State's Jaren Jackson and Duke's Marvin Bagley (if Kings pass on Bagley at No. 2) remain in contention for No. 3. > > — Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) [June 20, 2018](https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1009245296289878016?ref_src=twsrc^tfw)

There have also been reports that the Hawks are very high on Trae Young, like this one from Sam Vecenie of The Athletic. But, as Vecenie says, "If they decided to go that route, though, my guess is that would involve a trade down." That's a possibility Atlanta general manager Travis Schlenk mentioned as well, saying "There’s going to be some options for us to maybe slide back a couple spots."

If Bagley isn't selected at No. 2, the Hawks will likely take him. All of Woj, Givony, and Vecenie reported that Bagley would likely be the pick if he's available.

4. Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson, Jr.

Givony summed up the Grizzlies' situation well: "The Grizzlies like the top four of this draft and will take the best player available then figure out the fit later." Jaren Jackson Jr. is likely to be that remaining player.

There were some reports that they'd consider Porter, and they did attend the medical display in Chicago. I believe that, but that interest fits with their reported openness to trading the No. 4 pick to move down in the lottery.

Memphis may be the team in the top five that is most likely to trade their pick in a package involving the awful contract of Chandler Parsons. As Woj reported, "I don’t think Memphis is married to keeping that (fourth) pick. If they can get some value by moving down, they are going to look into that."

By the way, neither of those players have been to Memphis, according to reports. Only Duke's Wendell Carter Jr. chose to work out for the Grizzlies. That's a bad sign for a No. 4 pick holder, and it's clear that prospects aren't buying Memphis' ability to be player development-oriented.

5. Dallas Mavericks: Mo Bamba, Texas

Dallas' front office, according to Wojnarowski, is stuck with a choice: Do they think they can sign DeMarcus Cousins in free agency? If so, they could draft a smaller player that would fit next to Cousins like Porter. If they don't think so, then a center, either Jaren Jackson Jr. or Mo Bamba, appears to be Dallas' choice.

Most seem to think that Dallas will prioritize the prospect over the free agency longshot, given their failures there in recent years. They certainly appear to like Bamba. As Mike Fisher, a local reporter from Dallas, said, "Mohamed Bamba’s pre-NBA Draft workout with the Dallas Mavericks on Monday was largely about 'confirmation.'"

That being said, if the Mavericks could slide down a few spots, get something valuable in return, still be able to draft Porter, and keep the Cousins dream alive, it seems like they do it. But Porter will probably be drafted too early for that scenario to play out.

As Woo reported, "There is some chatter that Dallas wants to be competitive again next season ... (potentially) by moving down and acquiring a piece to add to its rotation."

6. Orlando Magic: Collin Sexton, Alabama

There's less reporting on this pick than any other in the top 10, thanks to Orlando's quiet new front office and the small media contingent that reports on it. But Wojnarowski reported this on ESPN on Monday: "It is razor-thin in that Orlando draft room between Trae Young and Collin Sexton." Woj thinks Sexton will win, and so that's the pick.

But Young could reasonably be the point guard that replaces Elfrid Payton in Orlando, as could Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And finally, it's hard to ignore just how many mock drafts have Wendell Carter Jr. in this slot.

To look at Magic GM John Hammond's draft history, there's one consistent theme: length. Sexton is only 6-foot-2, but has a 6-foot-7 wingspan. That's good, but nothing compared to Gilgeous-Alexander. He's 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan.

7. Chicago Bulls: Michael Porter Jr., Missouri

There seems to be some consistency between the top mock drafts as to who Chicago will select. As Vecenie points out, "Michael Porter Jr. is living in Chicago. His agent, Mark Bartelstein of Priority Sports, has a relationship with Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf, and the agency has a history of placing players with the Bulls."

Furthermore, the Bulls' medical staff was the only team's that got a first-hand look at Porter last Friday; the other teams got to attend the show and get reports, but didn't get to put Porter through their own tests. It seems very much like Porter would like to play for the Bulls, and also seems like the Bulls want Porter to play for them. Indeed, Vincent Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago says they're even looking to possibly trade up in order to secure their man.

One other interesting note, if the Bulls stay put and Porter doesn't fall to them. Goodwill reports that the Bulls have soured on Kris Dunn somewhat after a slow start to his important offseason. That means they wouldn't necessarily shy away from taking Young or Sexton in that scenario.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kentucky

The rumored players for the Cavaliers at No. 8 are all point guards: Gilgeous-Alexander, Young, and Sexton.

Sexton might have the most buzz of the three to the Cavaliers. Owner Dan Gilbert himself attended Sexton's workout during the middle of the NBA Finals, and Joe Vardon of the Cleveland Plain Dealer said "LeBron's people like Sexton." That's a good start.

In this mock, though, Sexton is gone. Givony reported that "Cleveland's front office appears to be enamored with" Gilgeous-Alexander, and had the Cavs selecting him in his mock draft Tuesday, despite not working out with the team.

Finally, Young has appeared here in many mocks, though it doesn't appear that's based on a ton of reporting. There is a sense that if he falls this far, though, another team may trade up to snatch him.

9. New York Knicks: Wendell Carter Jr., Duke

New York is the media capital of the world, and so it probably shouldn't be surprising how many different reports there are of players the Knicks like. In particular, ESPN's Ian Begley has reported "some members of the Knicks organization" are high on Lonnie Walker, Kevin Knox, Porter Jr., Carter Jr., and Mikal Bridges. That's basically the list of players who have looked available at nine.

Young is still available, but there's a sense that the Knicks might avoid taking a point guard. "I'd be shocked if they took a guard at 9," a league source told Adam Zagoria at SNY.tv. "I'd be shocked."

Both Givony and Vecenie have the Knicks taking Knox at No. 9, though don't reveal the reporting that say that the Knicks would make that selection. Begley did note that the Knicks were impressed with Knox's workout, though they're not alone in that.

That being said, Begley also went on ESPN radio Monday and said that the Knicks will likely pick Knox unless Porter or Carter slipped. In this draft, Carter slips, and so they're selecting him. Weeks ago, Begley reported that "some members of the Knicks organization" were "enamored" with Carter. Zagoria's source agreed: "Everybody wants Carter and Porter to fall."

10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, Villanova

A lot of good reporting from the Sixers seems to indicate that they are very in favor of drafting Bridges. That includes reports from their own former general manager, Bryan Colangelo, whose wife started five "burner" accounts on Twitter to talk basketball. In particular, one of those accounts liked a tweet saying "Mikal Bridges is perfect for the Sixers. Bridges can contribute right away."

Wojnarowski agreed. "There's a lot of mutual interest between Mikal Bridges and the 76ers. If he's there, they'll probably select him."

Young, who is still available in this mock, had a workout scheduled with the Sixers, but canceled it on Friday. It looks like a pretty unlikely partnership. Zhaire Smith has worked out for the Sixers twice, though.

11. Charlotte Hornets: Trae Young, Oklahoma

Another small market, so there's not a lot of reporting on the Hornets' draft intentions, other than wide agreement that they're interested in drafting a point guard, skeptical that Kemba Walker stays in Charlotte for the long haul.

Gilgeous-Alexander seems to be the most likely selection if he's available, along with Sexton. As Vecenie puts it, "Some (NBA executives) believe that Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to play both on- and off-ball could be attractive to a team that might not deal Kemba Walker this summer. Others believe that Sexton’s competitive drive and toughness will elevate him in the mind of Michael Jordan, making him the pick."

In this mock draft, neither are available, but Young is. On Monday, Wojnarowski reported that the Hornets won't pass on Young if he's there at No. 11, so we'll go with that. Knox, by the way, worked out for the Hornets on Sunday.

12. Los Angeles Clippers: Lonnie Walker IV, Miami

13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, Texas A&M

The Clippers have two consecutive picks at No. 12 and No. 13, but it seems highly unlikely they keep both. They're looking to trade both up and down.

Woo reports that the Clippers "are looking into packaging picks 12 and 13, potentially with a player attached, to try and move up in the draft. They’re said to have real interest in Michael Porter and would have the best chance to target him if he falls outside the top six."

The mocked scenario is something like a worst-case scenario for the Clippers, who want the best of the three point guards in the lottery. In this, they're all gone: it seems if Orlando takes a point guard at No. 6, the Clippers might be out of luck. But if they keep their draft selections, Gary Woelfel in Milwaukee says they're hoping to land "a guard and a big man" with the picks.

Both Vecenie and Woo's mock draft have the Clippers taking Walker, so let's start there. As for a big man, we'll have the Clippers taking Robert Williams, the center from Texas A&M. Woo reports "Williams is in consideration for the Clippers," and there just aren't other big men left to reasonably draft at No. 13.

Again, the most likely scenario is that at least one of these picks is made by another team, and so another player gets selected. In general, draft day trades mean that the players end up being selected where they should be; no team trades up to the lottery to take a guy that would have been available at No. 20.

14. Denver Nuggets: Kevin Knox, Kentucky

Despite last year's calamity, when the Nuggets traded down and gave up Donovan Mitchell in the process, there's a real sense that the Nuggets might trade down again. As Woj reported on ESPN, "Denver has Kenneth Faried, whose contract they have been trying to get off for the last year, year and a half. They potentially could package that 14th pick in a deal to get salary off." Vecenie agrees. If they do move down, Mitchell Robinson looks like a potential target after meeting with the front office over the weekend.

Woj also reported that Denver "would love to get up into the top five or six," though it would be interesting how they'd get up there.

That being said, there's not a lot of reporting on what they'll do if they keep the pick. If both Kevin Knox and Miles Bridges fall to them, they'd be thrilled, as both can play the small forward position that haunted the Nuggets a little bit this year. Knox was the choice at ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, and seems to have a higher stock than Bridges, so we'll choose him.

15. Washington Wizards: Miles Bridges, Michigan State

Again, it may be more likely that the Wizards trade this pick than keep it. According to Ben Standig at the DC Sports Report, "The Wizards are open to trading down from the 15th overall pick in Thursday’s draft if another team takes on one of Washington’s expiring contracts." That includes Marcin Gortat, Jason Smith, or Jodie Meeks.

If the Wizards do keep it, there aren't a lot of indications in which direction they'll go. They are hosting Jerome Robinson for an individual workout this week, but that may just be a team conducting due diligence. Fans seem to want Williams, but he's gone in this mock.

Woo mentions Bridges as a "prospect they like." Vecenie noted that Washington likes toolsy athletes, and so Zhaire Smith might be the pick. But with a trade possible, it makes sense to go with the higher "stock," and that's Bridges.

16. Phoenix Suns: Aaron Holiday, UCLA

Another trade opportunity! As Suns GM McDonough said, "we’ll look at packaging to move up potentially, as well, if there’s a player in the mid-to-late lottery that we like," noting this pick, the No. 31 pick, and the future pick they're owed from Miami.

But there is some sense that if the Suns use No. 1 on Ayton, as expected, they'll want to use this pick on a point guard prospect. That's why Aaron Holiday is the selection at No. 16 on ESPN and The Athletic.

As Woo wrote, "Holiday has fans drafting in the teens, most notably the Suns, who have worked him out twice, and is pretty firmly in this mid first-round mix."

It's hard to find an indication of other players they like at No. 16.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Jerome Robinson, Boston College

Not much reporting, but both local and national sources are zeroing on two prospects: Jerome Robinson, the point guard from Boston College, and the uber-athletic Smith.

We're choosing Robinson because there are confirmed reports the Bucks like him. Woo says Robinson, "has worked his way up into the teens, with 16–23 looking like his range. The Bucks are said to be among the interested parties."

Woelfel, though, says Smith's workout "went very well," and Givony chooses Smith at No. 17 in his mock draft, though doesn't say that executives expect that selection.

By the way, this is yet another pick that could be traded. As Woelfel reports, "Multiple sources said the Bucks are quite open to moving the pick to acquire an established veteran who could immediately contribute next season."

18. San Antonio Spurs: Zhaire Smith, Texas Tech

There's limited information on what the Spurs want to do, but Jabari Young of the San Antonio Express-News might be the team's most well-sourced reporter. He wrote that the Spurs "are eyeing an athletic wing" in the draft. Does that sound like anyone we've discussed? Smith certainly fits that mold and is tied to the Spurs in at least one mock draft.

Troy Brown is another player that reporters have tied to San Antonio, and they've clearly shown interest in George Tech's Josh Okogie, who had two workouts with the Spurs.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Kevin Huerter, Maryland

Most of the focus is on Atlanta's first pick at No. 3. But among those paying attention to the Hawks' desires at No. 19 if they keep the pick, one name came up repeatedly: Kevin Huerter, the sharpshooter from Maryland.

Woo reports that "The Hawks worked him out and are known to be among the interested parties," and Vecenie noted that "Heurter had a strong workout with the Hawks." Huerter does seem like a good fit.

Once again, this pick might be traded. Michael Scotto of The Athletic reported, "The Atlanta Hawks have dangled their No. 19 and 30 picks to move up in the draft."

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo, Villanova

There's just no reporting on what Tom Thibodeau and Scott Layden are actually thinking on this pick. Instead, there's only widespread noting that they need to fill out their bench, especially at the wing. The only note is from Woo, saying, "The Wolves are yet another team that may be interested in moving off of their pick if there’s an opportunity to shed salary."

The only hint we have is that both Vecenie and Givony's mocks have DiVincenzo going here. Woo's has Troy Brown. We'll give DiVincenzo the selection. That also fits Thibodeau's noted preference for scoring guards and Jamal Crawford's upcoming free agency.

21. Utah Jazz: Troy Brown, Oregon

The No. 1 player that the Utah Jazz have been tied to in this draft is Huerter. The Salt Lake Tribune's Tony Jones reported that, "He’s for sure a candidate for the Jazz at #21." Huerter is also the selection by Vecenie and was the selection by Givony at ESPN before he moved Huerter up to No. 19.

As Givony wrote then, "Utah is reportedly in the market for more shooting prowess, and there is talk that the Jazz are very high on the 6-7 wing (Huerter) who has elevated his draft stock considerably with a strong showing at the combine."

Woo noted that Huerter has "secured at least one guarantee from teams further down in the first round and has shut down his workouts. The Lakers and Jazz have both been linked to him as destinations." Jazz vice president of player personnel Walt Perrin said that the Jazz weren't the team that promised Huerter, and noted that Huerter canceled his workout with the Jazz that was scheduled on May 28.

That being said, given Atlanta's interest, Huerter is likely to be gone by No. 21, unless a player the Hawks like more falls to them. That leaves the Jazz with a choice they may not have been expecting.

They've been tied to Grayson Allen, and by all accounts, his workout in Utah was great. So was that of Keita Bates-Diop before he struggled with back spasms. But I'd be surprised to see either of those players drafted by Utah, as they're the oldest players in the first round, and the Jazz have repeatedly told me that they're looking for the best player a few years from now, not one that will be able to help right away. That approach just makes more sense than taking a four-year senior, too.

Among players with higher upside, Elie Okobo worked out for the Jazz both last year and this year, though the Jazz would need to play him defensively. They seemed to like DiVincenzo when working him out early. Fans are very interested in Jazz radio play-by-play man David Locke's selection of Dzanan Musa in his mock draft, and the Jazz did take him out to dinner when Musa flew into Utah. But it's hard to see Musa being the selection. He's just so iffy defensively, even in an inferior league, and doesn't fit Utah from an attitude point of view.

Enter the falling Troy Brown. In May, there was a sense that Brown would end up being selected in the late lottery or at least in the teens. That's still very much a possibility, with San Antonio possibly the most likely outcome. In this mock, Smith fell to them instead.

Brown is a unique prospect: he's still just 18 years old, but plays with the basketball IQ of someone much older. The Jazz's player development staff would love to work with him.

Here's the moral of this mock draft from a Jazz point of view: Someone the Jazz like is going to fall to them. Perrin noted that the team is still looking at 10-12 players, and he expects 6-8 of them to have been selected by No. 21. From there, it's just about choosing the best out of a smaller pool of players with high upside.

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