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SALT LAKE CITY — It's been a disappointing 15 games for the Jazz, with only one bright spot.
Rudy Gobert's injury will keep the Jazz's best player off the court for another month. Dante Exum will be out for either the whole season or most of it. Joe Johnson is missing a month with "wrist tendon instability," which probably is a real injury but also definitely doesn't sound like one.
On the court, Ricky Rubio has been a nightmare at times, playing the worst stretch of basketball of his career as he adapts to his new home. Rodney Hood hasn't appeared to take the leap that some expected after Gordon Hayward's departure. Gobert isn't solving all of the Jazz's defensive problems. Derrick Favors can't figure out how to contribute next to Gobert and even with Gobert out has scored over 10 points only once.
So here's the one silver lining: Donovan Mitchell looks like he's going to be an NBA star. And even better, he really is improving game by game, figuring out what works and what doesn't in the league.
After an excellent summer league, Mitchell really struggled in the first five games of his NBA regular season career. Over those first five games, he shot the ball horrifically, just 25 percent from the field and 16 percent from the 3-point line, leading to ugly graphs like this.
But Mitchell has taken off in November. In that month, Mitchell is averaging 19.9 points per game on 42 percent shooting and 35 percent from the 3-point line. That's still not wildly efficient, but it's actually pretty good for an NBA guard. And he's doing it while taking 30 percent of the Jazz's possessions and moving into the starting lineup. No rookie in the last 29 years has taken more shots per 100 possessions while he's on the court.
What's probably more impressive than the production is the slope of his improvement. I think it's fair to say that he's doing a lot of things better, but here are a few things I've noticed. Here's some before-and-after looks:
First: He's under much more control when taking his jump shot. These aren't exactly the same action, but see how Mitchell has to kind of jump stop here to get the shot straight in his first NBA game? Even though the shot isn't contested at all, the speed and distance of the shot make it tough for Mitchell, and it misses well short. Before:
Today's article is on Mitchell's improvement. A good shot by Mitchell from early in the season, but he probably makes this open look harder than it needs to be by stopping so quickly and taking it from distance. pic.twitter.com/q7IvwXLNcV — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 17, 2017
Compare that to this in Mitchell's most recent game, where he more calmly turns and steps into the three. After:
But against NYK, he slows down a little bit and takes a step-in shot, and it falls. pic.twitter.com/k1hwBEFSFJ — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 17, 2017
"I slowed my pace down to make the scoring easier," Mitchell explains.
He's also now doing a much better job of dealing with traffic inside. In his first game, he went into the lane to force up this floater after spinning that missed. It's probably just better for Mitchell to pass that out to Favors for a specialty of his, the open baseline 18-footer. Before:
Here's one where he squirrels and spins his way into the paint to take a tough floater early in the season: pic.twitter.com/wN1fXSx1SC — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 17, 2017
Now, though, Mitchell's playing much more in control. Mitchell takes a second to probe the defense, seeing what the scenario is before rushing into attack. Then, he finds Jonas Jerebko open in the corner for a three. After:
And one from against NYK where he penetrates, but more in control, and stops and finds Jerebko for a 3: pic.twitter.com/QskkWuS3Mb — Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) November 17, 2017
Finally, the defense has gotten much better. In his first few games, Mitchell was a hyper puppy, trying to help so much that he'd just leave his man wide open for a drive to the basket. Recently, though, he's been using his defensive aggression in a much more positive way.
This is just 15 games of development, but already, Mitchell is finding a better balance of using his impressive athleticism and quickness at the right times. It's turned him from the NBA's worst rookie to one of its best.
There is still a lot to work on, for sure. He's still not good at finding the roll man, for example. "I haven’t hit (Rudy Gobert) on a roll to the basket once this year," he points out. "I’m trying to work on that." His assist totals are low for someone who uses the possessions he does.
He hasn't really figured out the mid-range shot, shooting just 29 percent on the season. Right now, he's addressing that by not taking very many of them, which suits Quin Snyder just fine. And on defense, he definitely fouls too much and gets too few defensive rebounds (only 7 percent of opponents missed shots, a low number).
The thing that the Jazz brass might like most about Mitchell, though, is his attitude, which might be the most growth-oriented I've ever seen in an NBA rookie.
Mitchell is incredibly quick to own mistakes, on the court and after games in post-game media interviews. It's gotten to the point that Thabo Sefolosha, who sits two lockers down from Mitchell, tells the rookie to stop blaming himself after losses, that everything that goes wrong isn't his fault.
But he's also incredibly quick to point out what he needs to do to correct them, to move forward and become a better player. And, with the lead role he's taken on the team, he's done exactly that.
"We've put a lot on him and he's capable of handling it," Snyder said. "The thing I'm most excited about with Donovan is his work ethic and his thirst to learn."
