How much should Rodney Hood be paid?

SALT LAKE CITY — How much is a reasonable amount to pay Rodney Hood?

That's the question the Jazz's front office must answer over the course of the next two months, while Hood is eligible for an extension to his rookie scale contract until Oct. 31. The Salt Lake Tribune reports that the Jazz and Hood have had preliminary discussions on the topic, though with the deadline so far away, there's room to wait for the next meeting to be a few weeks from now.

So what are the Jazz looking at? Well, they're trying to figure out how much Hood is likely to be worth over the next four years. It's a hard question to answer for a lot of reasons, not least of which are the injuries which impacted Hood's production in 2016-17. But the biggest complicating factor is Hood's expected role jump this year, as he likely becomes the Jazz's premier perimeter scorer.

Let's start here: Hood's statistical projections are pretty modest. FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO system compares Hood's last three NBA seasons to the career of every NBA player since 1976, finds the closest comparables in age and production, and then looks at how those players' careers unfolded to make educated guesses about the future of Hood. Here's what Hood's projection looks like:

CARMELO takes into account both Hood's injured season in 2016-17 and 2015-16 when making the projection, and splits the difference, projecting about 2.2 wins added per season for the next few years. You'll notice that none of Hood's closest comparables went on to be All-Star caliber players: instead, they're guys who were nice role players for much of their careers. C.J. Miles has contributed well to the Pacers. Junior Bridgeman was a nice off-the-bench microwave scorer who then became worth $400 million (after buying a bunch of Wendy's franchises). Terrence Ross, Calbert Cheaney, Morris Peterson are all guys who are or were nice wing options for 20-30 minutes per game.

To be honest, that's Hood's most likely outcome: a solid rotation player, an average starter. In today's NBA, that puts Hood in line for a salary of about $12.5 million per year. 4 years (almost all rookie contract extensions are for four years), $50 million is a reasonable starting point.

But there's some reason to believe Hood can deserve more. The biggest factor is that he runs sets to create for himself, in pick and roll and isolation, more frequently and more capably than any of his contemporary CARMELO comparables.

Hood's frequency numbers here are going to spike in 2017-18. Without Gordon Hayward, Hood is now probably the Jazz's No. 1 option to create offense in late shot clock situations, at least in those majority of minutes when Joe Johnson isn't on the floor. He'll take over a large portion of Hayward's scoring and playmaking responsibilities, and even with no improvement, will probably convert them at a slightly-above-average efficiency.

That's why I believe Rodney Hood is likely to be the Jazz's leading scorer next year. And if he is, it's probably reasonable to slate him in for about 17 points per game. Every team in the NBA had their leading scorer score at least 17 PPG last season except for one: the Detroit Pistons. Tobias Harris led them with 16.2 points per game, and even he recently signed a 4-year, $64 million extension. Orlando's Evan Fournier was the second lowest leading scorer last season (17.2 PPG), and he recently signed a 5-year, $85 million extension.

So you can see why the Jazz would be interested in getting Hood extended now: they're trying to get Hood at rotation-player-or-average-starter money before he gets the chance to show he can make nominal-leading-scorer-but-not-All-Star money. Meanwhile, Hood's representation will naturally shoot for more.

There are also a couple of contextual pieces of info to add into the mix, too. The first is Dennis Lindsey's history with rookie extensions. On one hand, getting Rudy Gobert locked up last summer seems masterful now. On the other, getting Alec Burks in a four-year extension has been a mistake, albeit one that was difficult to predict given Burks' sudden rash of injuries. And on a third more difficult hand, you have the example of Hayward, who the Jazz opted not to give an extension to, which led to Hayward testing restricted free agency, getting a max offer, opting out a year earlier than he otherwise would have, and bad feelings all around. Hood isn't as good as Hayward (even Hayward wasn't back in 2014), but the example still stings.

But Hood has been working out with assistant coach Johnnie Bryant all summer, just as Hayward did before making his All-Star leap last year. And Hood has been a model citizen, the kind of player that the Jazz want to keep around the organization. He works hard, gets along extremely well with his teammates, takes instructions from his coaching staff, knows the importance of defense, and more. If anyone has the intangibles and situation well-situated to improve, it's Hood.

From a Jazz perspective, though, there's also some reason to wait. Signing Hood to an extension now would reduce the amount of cap space the Jazz have to offer in free agency in 2018. Without a Hood extension, they can open up a maximum salary cap slot. With a Hood extension, they can't without doing some significant maneuvering. Stretching-and-waiving Burks' contract isn't enough, and outright dumping it on another team might not be either depending on the size of Hood's deal. If they do leave it open, the Jazz would be one of a small number of teams with that potential of max cap space.

In other words, it's not a slam dunk either way. In order to use the money now and reduce their flexibility, the Jazz will need Hood's deal to be somewhat of a discount over what he might receive in restricted free agency. Hood's representation will be interested in guaranteeing Hood a good paycheck, but know that a bigger one is likely around the corner if Hood puts up a solid, healthy season in an expanded role.

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