Breaking down Utah's abundance of dropped passes


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SALT LAKE CITY — Fall camp at the University of Utah was a bit deceiving to all that were invited to watch practice. Receivers made big-time plays and caught nearly everything that came their way with ease.

But three games into the season, receivers have failed to live up to their preseason hype, and the offense has been lackluster, failing to score points and extend drives. It’s not that the receivers lack the talent, it’s that they’re not living up to their potential due to multiple dropped passes throughout the early season.

After reviewing all three games and assigning “blame,” several interesting points emerged. First off, let’s define some terms I created for this purpose:

  • Drops PBU (pass breakups) — An indication that a defender had some sort of impact on the receiver not being able to bring down a pass. This does not mean the receiver couldn’t have come down with the ball, but simply that a defender made a play to make it harder to catch.
  • Drops Throw — Although good receivers should be flexible and able to catch a pass wherever the ball is thrown (within reason), some passes make it harder on the receiver and blame should be assigned to the quarterback. These could be passes that were too high or too low, making it difficult for the receiver to bring it down.
  • Drops Minus — This is just a simple calculation. All dropped passes minus the Drops PBU and Drops Throw. These are the drops that are attributed solely on the receiver.
So, let’s dig into the numbers.

Quarterback Tyler Huntley has completed 67-of-109 passes (63.4 percent) and four touchdowns for a total of 737 receiving yards this season. But of his 42 incomplete passes, 23 have been dropped by a receiver. As mentioned above, there are contributing factors to most of the drops. Of the 23 dropped passes, 13 were tied to the defender breaking it up (10) or the quarterback throwing an off-target pass (three).

That leaves 10 dropped passes in three games squarely on the shoulders of the receivers and tight ends. While not every pass is expected to be caught, if you factor in just the 10 dropped passes, Huntley’s completion percentage jumps up to 70.6 percent. Most importantly, Utah extends its drives and likely scores more often than they have.

Against Washington, a couple of catches could have made all the difference in a game Utah wasn’t outmatched in, but rather gave up to the Huskies. The most egregious play came on a fourth-and-one scenario where Utah was on the Washington 2-yard line. Huntley rolled out on a bootleg to tight end Connor Haller, who dropped the nearly guaranteed touchdown ball.

In the aftermath, Huntley was blamed for the missed red zone opportunity. “He doesn’t have touch,” was a common sentiment from fans. But the reality is, and the video corroborates this, the pass was not shot out of a cannon, metaphorically speaking, but was a firm pass to Haller, who failed to collect it. The reality is, Huntley’s pass was no harder than any ball given to receivers on the jugs machine at an equal distance.

Huntley has taken much of the criticism for the lack of offensive prowess — he’s the leader of the offense and that responsibility naturally gets passed onto him, fairly or not — and many are calling for a new quarterback under center. But the tape tells a slightly different story.

Nearly 78 percent of Huntley’s passes are on target and in a position to be caught by a receiver. Huntley is still growing into the offense and has areas to improve — namely his progressions and read options — but he’s giving his offense plenty of opportunities to succeed. But Huntley can’t do it alone and needs help from the linemen protecting him and the receivers that should be catching the ball more than they have been.

Another factor that is likely at play in the lackluster offense is the average depth of target (aDOT) for the receivers, which is 5.39 yards from the line of scrimmage. Huntley and the passing scheme have been hugely reliant on short, quick passes, which means a crowded field where receivers have little room to work.

In fact, Utah’s leading receiver, Britain Covey, has an aDOT of 2.63, and 190 of his 262 total receiving yards were made up after a catch. Once Covey catches it, he makes big plays but has little room to work with on the field. As a slot receiver, that’s not necessarily a bad thing — work the flats and make big gains with speed and his shifty nature — but it can’t be Utah’s only threat in the passing game.

Without a deep-field threat to mix up the scheme, Covey becomes the No. 1 target and a hunted man. As was seen against Washington, Covey was put into far too many situations where the likelihood of catching a pass was dangerous and ill-conceived. As a result, Covey took a beating and he had four drops (two were on him).

Utah has a week off to sort out its problems, rest up and get a restart to the season. But one thing is certain, if the offense expects to improve, it starts with the receivers and their ability to catch the ball to extend plays.

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Josh is the Sports Director for KSL.com and beat writer covering University of Utah athletics — primarily football, men’s and women's basketball and gymnastics. He is also an Associated Press Top 25 voter for college football.

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